Rebel Capitalist News New Jobs Data Just Released (What You Need To Know)
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Nov 20, 2025 The podcast dives into surprising jobs data, highlighting payroll growth despite rising unemployment. Recent downward revisions raise concerns about economic confidence. A bond market reaction points to higher odds of a Fed rate cut, leading to stock market rallies. Manufacturing job losses are examined alongside tariff implications. Unusual shifts in job types and the impact of immigration policies on job gains are discussed. Notably, Walmart's forecast signals consumer stress, prompting a personal investment strategy shift towards two-year Treasuries.
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Headline Jobs Can Be Misleading
- The September payrolls beat expectations but the unemployment rate hit a four-year high due to rising labor force participation.
- George Gammon warns headline job gains can mislead when participation and revisions tell a different story.
Downward Revisions Undercut Big Prints
- Revisions have repeatedly reduced prior monthly job totals, casting doubt on single-month spikes.
- Gammon expects the 119k print is likely to be revised down given recent revision patterns.
Markets Read Beyond The Headline
- Markets moved as if the strong headline actually increased odds of Fed easing, not tightening.
- Gammon attributes this to the unemployment uptick, participation rise, and expected future downward revisions.