Focused Compounding Ep 457. First 12 Hours on a Stock, 13-Fs, NKE/SBUX/ULTA, and Questions from X
Aug 16, 2024
Investment trends mirror the dot-com era, with a spotlight on Nvidia's pricing. The rise of influencer marketing in beauty, particularly Ulta Beauty, captures attention. Long-term stock performance insights from 13-F filings and the risks of distressed assets like Carvana are explored. The conversation also covers the impacts of national debt and stock market perceptions, alongside the complexities of valuing diverse industries like automotive and military. Personal experiences with meal delivery services provide a relatable touch to broader consumer behavior discussions.
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Start With The 10‑K, Then Probe Transcripts
- Read the 10-K first, then the 10-Q and proxy to avoid promotional bias in investor materials.
- Use earnings transcripts and investor presentations to spot industry narrative shifts and competitive positioning.
Prioritize Unknowns Before Deep Dives
- When researching a new stock, identify the key unanswered questions that could change the thesis.
- Prioritize what you don't know and how harmful being wrong would be before deep-diving.
Track Record Matters More Than Time Spent
- Long-term track record often drives the final decision, but it consumes less of your research time.
- The remaining research focuses on what could make the future differ from the past.