Military Technology and U.S.-China War in the Pacific — #51
Jan 11, 2024
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TP Huang discusses US-China strategic competition in terms of military technology. Topics include hypersonic weapons and A2AD, China's military technology evolution, surprise attacks on Hawaii or Seattle, Japan's role in a US-China conflict, Chinese invasion of Taiwan, PRC nuclear weapons buildup, PRC-Russia alliance, and future developments of military technology in China.
China's development of hypersonic weapons poses a real threat to the US Navy, challenging defense systems and increasing the vulnerability of aircraft carriers.
China's extended range ballistic missiles turn the entire coastline into a fortified area, intensifying the pressure on US forces and highlighting the potential co-dependence with Russia.
China's rapid technological advancements in military capabilities, particularly in fifth-generation stealth fighters, challenge the existing balance of power and may reshape traditional aerial warfare strategies.
Deep dives
China's A2AD Strategy and Hypersonic Weapons
China has been developing missile systems, specifically anti-ship missiles, to target US aircraft carriers. Despite initial skepticism, experts have come to recognize the real threat that these weapons pose to the US Navy. China's development of hypersonic weapons, including maneuverable reentry vehicles, has further amplified this threat. These hypersonic missiles present challenges to US defense systems, making interception more difficult due to their incredible speed and unpredictable ballistic paths. Additionally, the impact of a hit from a ballistic missile on a carrier can be significantly more damaging compared to a subsonic missile. China's ability to produce these weapons at a lower cost and conduct extensive training exercises with them increases its military advantage and poses a significant challenge for US forces in the region.
China's Missile Strategies and the Impact on US Forces
China's focus on missile development extends beyond anti-ship capabilities. They have also established a formidable ballistic missile force capable of striking targets within the second island chain, including Alaska, Hawaii, and possibly even areas like Seattle. With these extended ranges, China has effectively turned the entire coastline of the country into a fortified area where US forces within the first or second island chains are vulnerable. The deployment and potential use of these missile systems significantly raise the stakes for the US, requiring them to divert resources to counter these threats. Additionally, the ability of these missiles to inflict severe damage and potential mission kill on US aircraft carriers puts further pressure on US military capabilities. It is important to consider the potential co-dependence between China and Russia in this context, as Russia's resources and airspace are crucial for China's strategic operations and could have significant implications for global dynamics.
China's Technological Advancements and the Implications for Global Security
China's rapid technological advancements in military capabilities have caught many by surprise. The country's ability to close the technology gap, particularly in developing fifth-generation stealth fighters like the J-20, has raised concerns and highlighted its progress in advanced weaponry. While Russia has struggled to keep up with such advancements, China has managed to leverage its domestic talent and STEM expertise to quickly develop and deploy sophisticated military technology. This progress has significant implications for global security, challenging the existing balance of power and potentially altering military dynamics. As the development of sixth-generation aircraft looms on the horizon, with both China and the US expected to introduce these advanced platforms at similar times, the conversation around aerial combat and the utilization of drones continues to evolve. The emergence of autonomy and intelligent missile systems may reshape traditional aerial warfare strategies and force military forces to adapt to a rapidly changing landscape.
China's potential military actions in a conflict
In a potential conflict between the United States and China, the speaker argues that China is unlikely to initially attack Alaska, Hawaii, or Seattle. However, they consider it more probable that China would target US bases in Japan, Yunguang, surrounding areas, and possibly Darwin and Diego Garcia. The speaker emphasizes that China's strategy would involve avoiding a direct confrontation with the US at the initial phase to minimize the risk of drawing Japan into active participation. The decision to attack specific locations, such as the US base in Kadena, Japan, would depend on intimidating the Americans and the perceived balance of power. The speaker suggests that while Guam is likely to be targeted, the question of whether Japan would be attacked depends on their response and whether China aims to destroy Japanese vessels or enforce a blockade.
Factors influencing China's decision-making in a conflict
The speaker highlights the importance of factors like technology advancements, military capabilities, and perceived balance of power in shaping China's decision-making in a potential conflict. They discuss China's progress in electronic warfare and radar systems, particularly in the South China Sea, which has stirred tensions. The speaker argues that China believes time is on its side and sees no rush to engage in conflict, especially as it focuses on technological advancements and expanding its capabilities. They suggest that China's advancement in various sectors, such as manufacturing, precision engineering, and material science, may lead to a future scenario where negotiations and a peaceful resolution become more viable options, rather than engaging in warfare. However, they caution that tensions may rise if certain red lines, such as a name change or attempts to establish a US permanent base in Taiwan, are crossed.
(59:37) - Future developments of military technology in China
(01:11:44) - Predictions regarding US-PRC balance of power
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.
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