The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series Sub-Sea Drone Strike on Russian Sub || Peter Zeihan
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Dec 26, 2025 Ukraine claims a subsea drone strike has damaged a Russian Kilo-class submarine in Novorossiysk, raising eyebrows amidst evidence uncertainty. Peter Zeihan delves into how even minor damage can render subs inoperative, while the ongoing attacks in Crimea limit Russia's refit capacity. He discusses the strategic implications for Russian naval operations, predicting a potential collapse of their Black Sea Fleet if Novorossiysk becomes untenable. The conversation also explores possible delivery methods for the drone and the limitations of these underwater technologies.
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Unclear Damage, Big Operational Impact
- Satellite imagery shows damage at Novorossiysk but not conclusive proof a Kilo-class submarine sank.
- Peter Zeihan argues even modest external damage can permanently disable a submarine given Russia's reduced repair capacity.
Repair Capacity Is A Critical Vulnerability
- Russia's repair infrastructure for these subs is impaired because key refit equipment sits in Crimea under frequent drone attack.
- Zeihan reasons even mild damage could render a Kilo-class sub out of service long-term.
Subsea Drones Are Anti-Port, Not Torpedo Replacements
- Subsea drones lack robust guidance and cannot actively track moving targets without tethers or nearby motherships.
- Zeihan calls them anti-port weapons rather than at-sea game changers in their current form.