BlackRock’s Rick Rieder on Bitcoin, the Fed and His Big Worry in 2024
Feb 15, 2024
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Rick Rieder, Global asset allocation team leader at BlackRock, discusses his excitement about a return to normalcy in 2024, his hope for faster interest rate cuts by the Fed, his interest in bitcoin, and his big worry about the US national debt in the long term.
Rick Rieder predicts a return to normalcy in 2024 with strong economic growth and hopes for faster interest rate cuts by the Fed.
Rieder believes the economy is less sensitive to interest rates now, with a majority being service-oriented, and suggests bringing rates down to help lower income individuals, local banks, and commercial real estate.
Deep dives
Normalcy in the Markets and Nominal GDP Growth
Rick Reader discusses how the world has reached a point of normalcy in the markets and predicts a nominal GDP growth of 4% this year, indicating a return to more typical levels. He notes that the economy is operating at a good level and that the direction is towards trend growth rather than a soft or hard landing. Reader believes that the economy is less sensitive to interest rates now, with a majority of it being service-oriented and not interest rate sensitive. He argues that the Fed should bring rates down to help lower income individuals, local banks, and commercial real estate.
Commercial Real Estate and Banking Industry
Reader acknowledges the challenges faced by the banking industry, specifically banks with exposure to commercial real estate. He predicts further consolidation within the industry but does not anticipate a significant increase in the number of banks. He highlights the difficulties faced by banks in extending credit due to the need to build capital and reduce risk-weighted assets. Reader expects to see more headlines about banks with concentrated commercial real estate exposure facing challenges.
Bitcoin and Investing
Reader mentions that BlackRock has small exposures to Bitcoin in a couple of funds, considering it as part of their asset allocation framework. He suggests that over time, as more people become comfortable with it, Bitcoin may become a more prominent investment option. However, he sees it as a relatively small component compared to stocks and bonds, emphasizing that it requires more maturity for wider adoption.
BlackRock’s Rick Rieder leads the $10 trillion asset manager’s global asset allocation team and he’s excited about a return to normalcy in 2024. He’s expecting strong economic growth and he’s hoping the Fed will speed up its interest rate cuts this year. Plus, he explains why he likes bitcoin and what his big worry is right now.
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