Bloomberg Surveillance The Fed's Path Ahead & Minnesota ICE Shooting Fallout
18 snips
Jan 26, 2026 Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley macro chief, previews U.S. growth, Fed moves and currency swings. Patrick McHenry, former House Financial Services chair, dissects political and policy fallout from the Minnesota ICE shooting. Brian Belski, Humilis CEO/CIO, spots value in small- and mid-cap equities and bond roles. Janno Lieber, MTA chair/CEO, outlines storm recovery, de-icing work and a cautious take on fare-free buses.
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Fed Faces Conflicting Economic Signals
- The Fed faces an unusually mixed signal: solid spending but soft payrolls, producing disagreement on policy.
- Seth Carpenter expects a pause and a difficult Powell press conference on messaging.
U.S. Equities Could Broaden Beyond Tech
- Morgan Stanley is broadly bullish on U.S. equities and expects potential outperformance if rates ease and no recession occurs.
- Broader market participation beyond mega-cap tech could sustain gains if growth broadens.
Dollar Weakness Has Fundamental Roots
- Morgan Stanley predicted a weaker dollar into 2025 and saw about a 10% depreciation already.
- Carpenter still sees room for further dollar correction driven by fundamentals, not just headlines.