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Rebel Wisdom
In Search of the Third Attractor, Daniel Schmachtenberger (part 1)
Aug 18, 2022
02:45:26
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Quick takeaways
- The need for a 'third attractor' to avoid chaotic breakdown or authoritarian control in response to increasing technological capacities.
- Importance of shared sense-making to inform coordinated global action and address challenges like climate change and technological advancements.
- Urgency in responsible technological stewardship to prevent dystopian outcomes from exponential growth in AI, biotech, and cyber weapons.
- Focus on the need for transparency and accountability in technological development to mitigate risks and prevent unintended consequences.
- Emphasizing the role of transparency in navigating complex global issues, promoting collective action, and fostering sustainable development.
Deep dives
Overview of Catastrophic Risks
Catastrophic risks facing the world, their interconnected nature, and the potential for solutions to worsen other risks. Emphasizing the unsolvability of these risks without addressing the patterns of human behavior that contribute to them, with a focus on the need for collective action and responsible technological advancement.
Challenges in Sense-Making and Coordinated Action
Discussing sense-making challenges in addressing global crises, including differing perspectives on key issues like climate change and technological advancements. Highlighting the need for shared sense-making to inform coordinated global action and avoid collective failures that impede progress.
Exponential Technologies and Catastrophic Risks
Exploring the implications of exponential technological growth on increasing catastrophic risks, citing examples such as AI, biotech, and cyber weapons. Discussing the potential dangers of decentralized catastrophic capabilities and the urgency in avoiding dystopian outcomes through responsible technological stewardship.
Perverse Incentives and Externalities in Technological Development
Addressing the concept of perverse incentives in technology development, where the focus on opportunities often overshadows the consideration of risks. Examining the challenges of risk assessment, regulatory frameworks, and the race to prioritize market entry over ethical considerations, leading to heightened catastrophic risks in the technological landscape.
Lead Contamination and Public Health Risks
Lead contamination from leaded gasoline had significant health risks globally, with billions of IQ points lost due to its toxic effects. The lead not only decreased human IQ but also led to increased violence levels, showcasing the profound impact on society worldwide. Regulations addressing such contamination came after extensive harm, as the market prioritized advancement over public health, leading to long-lasting environmental damage and human health implications.
Challenges in Regulating Rapidly Advancing Technologies
The rapid advancement of technologies like AI and biotech poses significant challenges in regulation and risk management. Unintended consequences, accidents, and the potential for weaponization highlight the need for proactive measures to address safety concerns. The race for first-mover advantage drives an intense market dynamic, emphasizing the importance of transparency and accountability in technological development to mitigate risks.
Multi-Polar Traps and Collective Action Failures
Multi-polar traps, such as arms races, environmental degradation, and market competitions, underscore collective action failures and the challenges of navigating complex global issues. Transparency, forced transparency, and shared information emerge as potential solutions in binding these traps and promoting better decision-making. The interplay between opaqueness and transparency influences the outcomes in various sectors, shaping the global dynamics and risk landscapes.
Forced Transparency and Accountability in International Agreements
Forced transparency, exemplified by initiatives like satellite imaging for environmental monitoring, can reshape international agreements by fostering accountability and mitigating risks. The shift towards transparent solutions presents a compelling alternative to opaque approaches, offering a pathway to reducing information asymmetry and promoting cooperative efforts in addressing global challenges. Embracing transparency can lead to more effective mechanisms for securing collective well-being and sustainable development.
Balancing National Security Secrets and Democracy
The podcast delves into the challenges of balancing national security secrecy with democratic principles. It raises questions about how to sustain democracy when crucial information is classified as national security secrets. The discussion emphasizes the dilemma of verifying the integrity of authorities holding such secrets and ensuring alignment with the will of the people.
Importance of Transparency and Collective Intelligence in Governance
Another key point highlighted is the significance of transparency and collective intelligence in governance. It explores how transparency can enhance trust in government, foster citizen participation, improve coordination among government branches, and minimize corruption. The discussion underscores the potential of collective intelligence technologies to promote better decision-making processes and alignment of individual motivations with the common good.
Where are we headed as a species? What is the landscape of risks and challenges that we need to confront over the next decades, and are there a small number of key factors that we need to solve to avoid catastrophe?
These are the questions Daniel Schmachtenberger is laying out in a new two part series on Rebel Wisdom, called 'In Search of the Third Attractor'.
As he describes it, the power of ever increasing technological capacity (exponential tech) means that both destructive and creative capacities are increasing exponentially. Two of the most likely outcomes (attractors) are either some kind of chaotic breakdown, or the development of powerful control systems in response, oppressive authoritarian control.
Given this, what does a third option, a 'third attractor' look like?
Daniel will be speaking at the Rebel Wisdom festival, 'the Last Campfire' in London on November 5th. To check it out and buy tickets, go to: https://www.tickettailor.com/events/rebelwisdom/718672
To find out more about the topics Daniel is discussing, check out his work on civilisation, at Civilization Emerging: https://civilizationemerging.com/
And for more on his work around the Sensemaking crisis, check out the Consilience Project: https://consilienceproject.org/
Timecodes:
INTRODUCTION: 00:00:00
SENSEMAKING: 00:02:10
THE TWO ATTRACTORS: 00:06:09
EXISTENTIAL HOPE?: 00:09:01
INTERCONNECTEDNESS: 00:14:33
FAILURES OF ACTIVISM: 00:18:33
CATASTROPHIC RISK: 00:25:08
THE POST WW2 SYSTEM: 00:38:40
EXPONENTIAL DESTRUCTIVE TECHNOLOGY: 00:45:02
NEAR-TERM RISKS: 00:50:48
THE ENERGY TRAP: 00:58:10
PERVERSE INCENTIVES: 01:03:54
PRIVATE GAINS, EXTERNAL LOSSES: 01:09:38
BIOTECH RISKS: 01:14:13
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: 01:19:29
MULTIPOLAR TRAPS: 01:29:03
CORPORATIONS VERSUS INDIVIDUALS: 01:46:54
NEW GOVERNANCE SYSTEMS: 01:53:27
NETWORK DYNAMICS: 01:58:41
SOLVING MULTI-POLAR TRAPS?: 02:06:51
CENTRALISING POWER: 02:17:47
COLLECTIVE INTELLIGENCE: 02:33:00
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