Ground Truths

Adam Kucharski: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

Jun 29, 2025
In this engaging conversation, Adam Kucharski, a Professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and author of "Proof: The Art and Science of Certainty," dives into the complexities of knowledge and truth. He tackles the Monty Hall problem to highlight our struggles with probability and decision-making. Adam discusses how the COVID-19 pandemic reshaped public understanding of science and the importance of navigating correlation versus causation in research. His insights are timely, shedding light on certainty in an era of misinformation.
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ANECDOTE

Monty Hall Problem Skepticism

  • The Monty Hall problem confounded many, including mathematician Paul Erdos.
  • Even simulations couldn't initially convince him despite evidence showing switching doors doubles winning chances.
INSIGHT

Math Monsters Became Foundations

  • "Mathematical monsters," once dismissed as oddities, challenged intuitive assumptions in math.
  • These counterintuitive concepts later became foundational in probability and relativity theory.
INSIGHT

COVID Science: Speed vs. Certainty

  • During COVID, rapid science breakthroughs coexisted with overstated certainty and public misunderstandings.
  • Transparent data helped communication but sometimes distanced epidemiology from broader policy factors.
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