Bloomberg Talks Rosenberg Research President David Rosenberg Talks Fed, Second Trump Term
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Dec 5, 2024 David Rosenberg, President of Rosenberg Research, brings his expertise in economics to the discussion with Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney. He shares insights on the Fed's potential interest rate decisions and the implications of lower tariffs on trade and inflation. Analyzing post-pandemic productivity, he critiques the Fed’s labor market assessments. Rosenberg also dissects stock market trends, highlighting the cooling labor market, robust S&P 500 growth, and views potential corrections as buying opportunities amidst tech-driven valuation shifts.
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Disinflationary Trend
- David Rosenberg predicts a disinflationary trend with lower interest rates.
- He anticipates a hawkish cut by the Fed, signaling a pause, followed by further cuts due to data.
Productivity Boom
- The American productivity boom, post-pandemic, isn't solely due to stimulus but a supply-side shift.
- The retail sector led productivity growth by adopting digital models.
Cooling Labor Market
- The U.S. labor market is cooling but not contracting, showing mixed signals like increased openings but decreased hiring.
- Rosenberg questions the Fed's view of a strong economy, citing the Beige Book's numerous references to weak or modest growth.