David Stockman: "This Won't End Well" As Private & Public Sectors Increasingly Compete For Capital

Jul 20, 2025

In this engaging conversation, David Stockman, former Director of the Office of Management and Budget under Reagan, shares his insights on the escalating public and private debt crisis. He critiques current fiscal policies, warning that rampant deficit spending will lead to dire consequences. Stockman delves into the critical shift in central banking and the challenges of inflation, while humorously navigating the complexities of political economics. His call for enhanced economic literacy among policymakers highlights the urgent need for informed public engagement.

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INSIGHT

Alarming US Debt Projections

The US public debt is projected to rise from $30 trillion to $130 trillion in 30 years under current policy.
This huge debt growth is driven by demographics, entitlements, and lack of political will to change taxes or spending.

INSIGHT

End of Fed Debt Absorption

The Fed's massive bond-buying kept interest rates low and absorbed government debt for decades.
The current end of central bank absorption means private investors must now compete with the government for capital, causing possible financing stress.

INSIGHT

Inflation Limits Fed Actions

Inflation concerns ended the Fed's era of aggressive bond buying and money printing.
The Fed now shows great reluctance to expand credit, pushing debt financing onto private savers in a low-savings environment.

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Over the course of his long and successful career, David Stockman has been both a Washington DC AND Wall Street insider.He was the youngest serving cabinet member of the 20th century (heading the Office of Management & Budget under Reagan), served as a US State Representative, and was an early member of Blackstone.So he knows better than most people alive how our political, economic and financial systems work.Which is why we should listen closely when he talks of our current runaway deficit spending and mountain of public & private debt and concludes "this won't end well".To hear his informed reasons why, watch this video.#deficit #debtcrisis #federalreserve 0:00 - Federal Debt Crisis Overview7:05 - Critique of the “One Big Beautiful Bill”14:05 - End of Central Bank Absorption19:33 - Inflation as a Limiter24:04 - Response to Administration’s Growth Strategy33:25 - Political Pendulum and Progressive Policies37:24 - Potential Debate with Art Laffer47:02 - Investment Themes for a Turbulent Future50:03 - George H.W. Bush story53:04 - (Lack of) Economic Literacy in Congress:56:15 - Federal Reserve as Enabler1:01:16 - Closing and Resources_____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.