Panel on nuclear risk | Rear Admiral John Gower, Patricia Lewis, Paul Ingram | EAG London 23
Jun 17, 2023
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Former military officer, nuclear risk expert, and nuclear disarmament advocate discuss the increasing risk level, challenges of assessing nuclear weapon risks, failed treaties, no-first use policy, emerging technologies and climate crisis, and providing advice for addressing nuclear risks with diverse perspectives and creative thinking.
Effective deterrence is crucial in the nuclear sphere and policies that weaken it should be reversed or eliminated.
Risk in the nuclear domain should not be solely measured by probability, but also by the potential catastrophic impacts of nuclear weapons use.
Addressing nuclear risks requires collaborative efforts, engagement with diverse perspectives, and exploration of new ideas in the face of intersecting risks from emerging technologies and the climate crisis.
Deep dives
Nuclear Risks and Challenges
The panel discusses the challenges and risks in the nuclear sphere. They emphasize the importance of effective deterrence and the need to reverse or eliminate policies that weaken it. The speakers also highlight the increasing risks today, which are higher than during the Cuban Missile Crisis. They emphasize the interconnectedness of nuclear risks with other existential threats, such as climate change and emerging technologies. The panelists recommend approaches for addressing the risks, including either an abolitionist approach or a persuasive elimination approach. They also discuss the need to improve top-level multilateral communications and halt the development of new nuclear capabilities below the strategic level.
Understanding Risk Measurement and Consequences
The panel delves into the concept of risk and the challenges of measuring it accurately. They explain that risk is not solely about probability, but also about the potential impacts of nuclear weapons use. The panelists discuss the complexity of calculating probabilities, but emphasize that even low probabilities are dangerous due to the catastrophic consequences of nuclear weapons. They highlight the importance of risk reduction measures and resilience-building in the face of nuclear weapon use. Additionally, they stress the need to continuously update our understanding of risks based on new information, such as the gendered impacts of radiation and the long-term consequences on climate and food production.
The Changing Risk Landscape and Interplay of Threats
The panel acknowledges the evolving risk landscape influenced by emerging technologies and the climate crisis. They identify the intersecting risks of nuclear weapons, climate change, and migration, emphasizing that these crises can escalate one another if not properly addressed. They discuss the potential for populist leaders to become desperate and tempted to use nuclear weapons, particularly in the face of technological advancements and resource scarcity. The panelists stress the importance of collaborative efforts, engagement with diverse perspectives, and questioning prevailing assumptions and paradigms. They call for an exploration of new ideas and creative thinking to address nuclear risks in this complex and interconnected world.
Opportunities for Action and Collaboration
The panel highlights opportunities for individuals interested in addressing nuclear risks. They recommend engaging with think tanks or applying for programs like the nuclear fellow program at CSR. They encourage individuals to think creatively and not shy away from asking questions or proposing ideas from different backgrounds and perspectives. The panelists emphasize the importance of collaboration, altruism, and questioning prevailing values and paradigms. They acknowledge the difficulty and darkness of addressing nuclear risks but also emphasize the need to imagine positive futures and work towards a society that isn't perpetually plagued by existential risks.
Reflecting on Nuclear Risks and Urgency for Action
In conclusion, the panel reflects on the urgency of addressing nuclear risks. They discuss the dangers of miscalculation and the risks posed by short-range, lower-yield weapons. The panelists caution against underestimating the risks and the potential consequences of complacency or inaction. They stress the importance of adopting a collective and proactive approach, listening to diverse perspectives, challenging existing assumptions, and striving for a world that is free from existential threats and driven by positive values and paradigms.