War on the Rocks Waiting for a Theory of Victory in Ukraine
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Dec 4, 2024 Mike Kofman, a research fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace specializing in Russian military affairs, joins the conversation to dissect strategies in the Ukraine conflict. They explore Ukraine's hesitation in mobilization, critique the Biden administration's strategy, and discuss the implications of security guarantees outside NATO. The conversation also delves into the need for a new security framework for Ukraine, highlighting innovative solutions amid shifting geopolitical dynamics and potential U.S. disengagement.
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Biden Administration's Approach to Ukraine Aid
- The Biden administration lacks a clear Ukraine strategy and is now focused on spending remaining funds.
- Their approach has been reactive, lifting restrictions and providing capabilities without a cohesive plan.
Impact of Lifting Missile Strike Restrictions
- Lifting restrictions on missile strikes is unlikely to deter North Korean involvement.
- Russia needs more manpower and will likely accept North Korean soldiers regardless.
Need for a Theory of Victory
- The Biden administration lacks a theory of victory for Ukraine, leaving the end state unclear.
- The Trump administration needs a positive program for a political settlement beyond Ukraine keeping all its territory.