Maggie Lake Talking Markets Episode 115: Outlook for Bonds and Bitcoin. With Noelle Acheson.
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Dec 10, 2025 Noelle Acheson, a macro and crypto analyst behind the Crypto Is Macro Substack, joins the discussion to unpack the recent Fed rate cuts and their impact on risk assets. She shares insights on how liquidity forces shape Bitcoin and Ethereum's performance, and examines the evolving geopolitical landscape's effect on the crypto market. Acheson also evaluates the relevance of Bitcoin's halving cycles, highlights regulatory changes enhancing market structures, and predicts potential movements in 10-year yields as policies evolve.
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Fed Signals A Longer Pause
- The Fed's message was mostly expected but projects a pause in cuts and a divided FOMC looking meeting-by-meeting.
- Noelle Acheson says the global easing cycle is stalling, making extended pauses likelier.
Balance Sheet Move Is A Trickle
- The Fed's $40bn Treasury bill buys are a market-function move, not a full-blown QE bazooka.
- Noelle describes it as a trickle to alleviate funding pressures around year-end and tax days.
Deglobalization Raises Inflation Baseline
- Deglobalization and tariffs are structurally inflationary forces beyond central-bank control.
- Noelle warns these trends will keep inflation higher than pre-pandemic norms.