War on the Rocks The Israeli-Iranian War: How We Got Here & What It Means
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Jun 17, 2025 
Nicole Grajewski, a nuclear policy expert at the Carnegie Endowment, and Rachel Brandenburg, an authority on Middle Eastern geopolitics from the Israel Policy Forum, dive deep into the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. They analyze Israel's recent military strikes and the resulting geopolitical upheaval. The conversation reveals the complexities behind Iran's nuclear ambitions and the implications of U.S. diplomatic failures. Additionally, they discuss Russia's growing defense alliance with Iran and its impact on regional stability.
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Iran's Nuclear Threshold State
- Iran's nuclear program rapidly advanced after the U.S. withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018.
- Iran is a threshold nuclear state but has not yet weaponized or decided to build nuclear weapons.
Timing of Israeli Strikes
- Israel saw a window to strike Iran after weakening its proxies and doubted U.S. negotiations would stop Iran's nuclear progress.
- Netanyahu launched strikes soon after Trump's 60-day negotiation deadline passed without a deal.
Failed U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks
- U.S. negotiation efforts with Iran lacked clear vision and created confusion, leaving Iranians skeptical.
- Some momentum existed but substantial progress towards a deal was absent.