Will Canada be forced to up its military spending?
Jun 24, 2024
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Exploring Canada's struggle to meet NATO's 2% GDP military spending target, challenges in military recruitment amid geopolitical tension, and the need for a clear military vision in light of evolving threats and pressure from allies.
Canada's defense spending falls below NATO's 2% target, hinting at possible increased military expenditure.
Challenges in Canadian Armed Forces recruitment persist, impacting personnel levels and the need for strategic decisions on military capabilities.
Deep dives
Canada's Defense Spending Compared to NATO Target
Canada's defense spending remains below the NATO target of 2% of GDP, currently at 1.37%. With wealthier status, Canada theoretically should have a larger military if in line with NATO goals. Although recent procurement announcements hint at increased spending to meet NATO goals, questions linger on the government's ability to follow through on future procurements.
Definition and Components of Defense Spending
Defense spending includes personnel, equipment, operational budgets, and supportive bureaucracy at national defense. It extends to civilian staff supporting military operations, military missions abroad, and munitions donations. Canadian defense spending is estimated in the mid $20 billion annually, facing challenges like bureaucratic inefficiencies in utilizing allocated budgets.
Recruitment and Capacity Concerns in Canadian Military
Recruitment in the Canadian Armed Forces faces challenges with exits increasing and recruitment slowing down. The pandemic and labor shortages impact recruitment efforts. The lengthy processing time for recruits is acknowledged as a systemic issue, hindering timely induction. Efforts to reverse the personnel decline show progress but sustaining and increasing personnel levels remains a significant challenge.
Future Directions in Canadian Defense Spending
Increasing defense spending offers short-term capacity improvements while maintaining existing capabilities. Prioritizing refurbishing military infrastructure and resolving bureaucratic inefficiencies could revitalize the current military setup. A lack of clear vision on the desired military size and capabilities persists, urging for strategic decisions on the military's role and capabilities in the future.
All NATO members are required to spend the equivalent of 2% of GDP on their military, and Canada has always fallen short of that benchmark. But now, more frequent domestic crises, mounting geopolitical turmoil, and harsh rhetoric from south of the border, may mean that it's time to put up or shut up when it comes to military spending.
So where do the biggest gaps in our capabilities exist? How difficult will it be to remedy them? And what sort of military do we as Canadians actually want?
GUEST: Matt Gurney, Columnist, Co-founder of The Line
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