2024 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions: Smarter portfolios for a world in transition
Oct 25, 2023
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Experts discuss the challenges of the macro backdrop and the importance of long-term focus. Emphasizes diversification beyond a 60/40 portfolio. Highlights attractive investment opportunities in fixed income and equities. Discusses the role of alternative investments and active management in protecting against shocks. Disclaimer emphasizes that the views expressed are not advice.
Investors are encouraged to extend their investments beyond traditional stocks and bonds, considering alternatives and active management to enhance returns and manage the ongoing transition.
There are opportunities in equities and bond markets due to expected growth in developed markets driven by AI development and automation, and the anticipation of positive inflation in Europe and Japan.
Deep dives
Smarter Portfolios for a World in Transition
The 2024 long-term capital market assumptions focus on smarter portfolios for a world in transition. With significant changes happening in the macro-environment, including transition in the economy, policies, technology, and climate, the 60-40 asset allocation remains a strong starting point. Despite a slight decrease in the forecasted returns for a 60-40 portfolio compared to the previous year, the 7% return over the long run is still attractive. However, investors are encouraged to extend their investments beyond traditional stocks and bonds, considering alternatives and active management to enhance returns and manage the ongoing transition.
Outlook for Growth and Inflation
In terms of growth, the long-term view suggests better developed market growth driven by the productivity upside from AI development and automation. This is expected to boost developed markets by 10 basis points or even more. On the inflation perspective, there has been a spike in prior months, but a decline is expected, particularly in the US, leading to more fair and long-term levels. Europe, which has been in a disinflationary environment, is anticipated to come out of it, while Japan shows signs of positive inflation. These dynamics present opportunities in equities and bond markets, respectively.
Changing Assumptions in Fixed Income and Equities
Fixed income is still considered attractive despite volatile returns, with slightly higher yields compared to the previous year. The Federal Reserve's stance on Cash rates is not expected to last for the long term, making bonds an attractive investment with duration premium. Credit is also recommended due to contained recovery and default rates. When it comes to equities, although the expectation was a struggling market, the return forecasts remain attractive. US large-cap equities are expected to have a 7% return over the next 10 to 15 years, driven by technology transition. Meanwhile, European and Japanese equities also offer opportunities due to stronger growth expectations and currency trends against the dollar.
The 28th annual edition of our 2024 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions explores how investors can build on the 60/40 portfolio – using new axes of diversification to navigate an economy in transition from disinflation to reflation and from easy monetary policy to higher costs of capital. Our experts discuss these themes and more on our November episode.
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