Contrarian Investing with GMO's Ben Inker - FEG Insight Bridge
Feb 5, 2025
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Ben Inker, Co-head of asset allocation at GMO, shares his insights on contrarian investing, drawing from his experiences influenced by mentors like Jeremy Grantham. He and Greg Dowling, CIO at FEG Investment Advisors, delve into the significance of deep value stocks in today's market. They discuss the challenges posed by the rise of passive investing and the concentration risks in large-cap tech stocks. Together, they explore emerging opportunities in underappreciated sectors, like Japanese small caps, offering valuable perspectives for savvy investors.
A deeper analysis of asset returns is crucial for investors, as it reveals sustainable trends versus random fluctuations for better decision-making.
The podcast emphasizes the potential of Japanese small-cap stocks, which offer strong fundamentals and competitive advantages amid current overvaluation concerns.
Deep dives
Understanding Asset Returns
The discussion emphasizes the importance of dissecting asset returns to identify their underlying drivers. It highlights that merely focusing on past performance can be misleading, as understanding the factors contributing to those returns can provide more accurate insights into future prospects. Ben Inker posits that a deeper analysis can reveal which returns may be sustainable, which might reverse, and which could be random fluctuations. This analytical approach is foundational to effective asset allocation and is crucial for individual investors aiming to make informed decisions.
Navigating Market Valuations
The conversation addresses the concerning levels of stock valuations, particularly in the U.S., which appear to be based on optimistic assumptions about future growth. Inker notes that many companies are currently priced as if their performance will consistently be extraordinary over the coming years, a projection that is fraught with uncertainty. The potential for this overvaluation highlights the necessity for diversification, especially into international markets where valuations are more reasonable. This strategic approach allows investors to mitigate risks associated with inflated stock prices while maintaining exposure to opportunities.
The Rise of Japanese Small-Cap Stocks
Inker expresses optimism regarding Japanese small-cap stocks, which are characterized by favorable fundamentals yet have been overlooked by many investors. He points out that Japan's transition toward increased corporate efficiency and profitability is expected to drive future growth. Many small-cap companies are well-positioned in niche markets, demonstrating competitive advantages that could lead to significant returns. The Japanese yen's undervaluation further enhances the attractiveness of these investments for foreign investors.
Balancing Quality and Value Investments
The dialogue highlights the importance of maintaining a portfolio that emphasizes quality, especially amid market uncertainty. Quality stocks tend to exhibit lower economic risks, making them more resilient during downturns and generally outperforming lower-quality stocks over time. The discussion also differentiates between deep value and general value stocks, noting that while deep value opportunities are abundant, the overall value segment may be overrated. Investors are encouraged to focus on high-quality small-cap names to navigate potential market volatility effectively.
This week on episode 510, we share a conversation between Ben Inker of GMO and Greg Dowling of FEG Investment Advisors on contrarian investing, deep value stocks, and the rise of passive investing. David introduces the episode by sharing his key takeaways from the discussion.
FEG Investment Advisor is David's former institutional advisory firm, where he worked for 17 years, before founding Money for the Rest of Us. Greg Dowling is Chief Investment Officer of FEG, and David's former business partner and colleague.
Topics discussed in the episode include:
How experienced professionals can have a significant influence on one's career, such as the impact Jeremy Grantham and David Swenson had on Ben's career
The impact of the rise of passive investing
Investment opportunities in quality and deep-value stocks
The distinct risks of the high concentration in large-cap tech stocks