Focus on allocating towards the right industry groups for higher expected returns.
Utilize growth models to screen securities based on metrics like earnings, sales, and liquidity.
Deep dives
The Influence of Industry Groups on Stock Performance
About half of a stock's movement is directly linked to its industry group. By analyzing over 200 industry groups, it becomes evident that understanding the strengths and weaknesses within different sectors can significantly impact investment decisions. Allocating towards the right industry groups rather than solely focusing on individual securities can lead to higher expected returns. This approach simplifies the stock selection process by emphasizing landing in high-performing industry groups.
Screening Process and Criteria for Security Selection
Starting with a screening process of 7,000 securities, applying growth models drastically reduces the number to less than 100 stocks at times. Key metrics such as a 20% increase in earnings and sales, along with margin expansion, guide the selection of potential securities. Liquidity factors play a crucial role in further refining the stock universe, with a benchmark of $100 million daily volume for tradeable securities. Institutional sponsorship also carries weight in decision-making, indicating confidence from reputable funds.
Tailoring Growth Metrics to Industry Characteristics
When applying growth metrics across different industries, the weighting and benchmarks need adjustment based on industry specifics. For asset-heavy industries like tech, higher growth margin benchmarks may be suitable, while asset-light industries may require proportional adjustments. Understanding industry dynamics enables a more tailored approach to growth investing, ensuring that metrics align with the growth potential and risk profile of each industry.
It’s no secret that high flying growth stocks were hammered in 2022, so I thought it would be fun to revisit my conversation with Jason Thomson back in Season 3.
Jason is a portfolio manager at O’Neil Global Advisors, where he manages highly concentrated portfolios of growth stocks.
Now, Jason is a discretionary PM, which may seem like an unusual guest for a quant podcast. But his approach is so data and process driven, it’s hard to tell the difference.
I selected a few questions about his take on growth investing in general, but I’d highly recommend you go back and listen to the original episode for his thoughts on portfolio construction and risk management as well.
Enjoy!
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