The AI Bubble & What Comes Next… (Guest: Jesse Felder)
Aug 7, 2024
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Jesse Felder, author of The Felder Report, dives into the complexities of the current market trends, spotlighting the AI bubble and its implications. He highlights the risks tied to insider selling, drawing parallels to past crises. Felder discusses the discrepancy between AI hype and reality, warning of unsustainable business models. He also advocates for a defensive investment strategy, emphasizing opportunities in commodities like energy and copper, while analyzing credit spreads and yield curves to gauge market sentiment.
Current market conditions signal increased risk of correction, with historical parallels drawn to downturns seen in 2007.
Skepticism about AI technology's ability to meet expectations suggests inflated valuations in related stocks, urging a focus on defensive strategies.
Deep dives
Market Corrections and Risks
Current market conditions reflect a heightened risk of correction, primarily due to various factors including the potential unwind of the yen carry trade. Recent market dynamics, such as unprecedented short positions in volatility futures and a surge in zero-day call options, indicate that risk levels have been elevated for an extended period. Historical comparisons were drawn to market behaviors in 2007, suggesting that recent sell-offs are part of a larger cyclical trend. Analysts emphasize that the current circumstances resemble those preceding significant market downturns, hinting at a possible shift in sentiment among investors.
Insider Selling Signals
Insider selling has intensified, particularly highlighted by notable figures like Nvidia's CEO and Warren Buffett, suggesting underlying concerns about future profitability. An analysis of insider trading activity, specifically the sell-to-buy ratios, reveals a significant increase in selling relative to buying, which could be a precursor to disappointing earnings. The historical context shows that insider activity is often a reliable predictor of stock performance, particularly when looking forward 12 to 24 months. This trend raises alarms about potential earnings disappointments on Wall Street, contradicting current bullish projections.
The AI Bubble and Investment Strategies
The evolving narrative around AI technology reflects a growing skepticism regarding its potential to fulfill overly optimistic market expectations. Experts indicate that current AI capabilities may not deliver the anticipated productivity gains, with many companies struggling to effectively implement these technologies. Furthermore, this disconnect between hype and reality is reminiscent of previous market bubbles, suggesting that valuations in AI-related stocks may be inflated. As a counterpoint, investors are encouraged to adopt more defensive strategies and explore opportunities in the commodity sector, particularly where valuations remain attractive despite recent market volatility.
On this weeks Huddle +, Patrick welcomes, the author of The Felder Report, Jesse Felder. They discuss the recent market trends, the commodity secto, the AI bubble and what comes next…