LessWrong (Curated & Popular) “This is a review of the reviews” by Recurrented
Sep 23, 2025
Dive into a fascinating exploration of risk, where personal tales of motorcycle riding and ocean sailing reveal the often overlooked dangers of everyday choices. Hear insights on AI risks that could lead to global catastrophe, sparking a discussion on the importance of transparent reviews in high-stakes scenarios. The episode draws parallels from historical diplomacy, emphasizing the need for agreement even amidst disagreements. Intriguing stories and expert perspectives blend seamlessly, making you rethink risk in our rapidly evolving world.
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Episode notes
Personal Risk Calibration
- The host recounts riding a motorcycle for a year and later sailing across an ocean to calibrate risk.
- He compares those personal risk estimates (1/800 and 1/10,000) to perceived AI catastrophe risks.
Calibration Gap On AI Risk
- AI researchers the author knows assign >5% probability to an AI catastrophe and that feels uncomfortably high.
- He notices reviewers perform mental gymnastics in book reviews that can mislead readers about true disagreements.
Build On Agreement Not Disagreement
- Focus on areas of agreement rather than amplifying fine-grained disagreements when stakes are high.
- Calling out disagreements matters, but avoid misleading people by obscuring what's actually agreed upon.