Ed Hyman on How Investors Should Use Economic Data
Apr 4, 2024
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Barry Ritholtz talks to Ed Hyman, founder of Evercore ISI Intl Ltd. They discuss the evolution of data resources in finance, navigating financial forecasts, market insights, economic indicators for a potential recession, Jerome Powell's views, cybercrime preparedness, and mentorship in investing.
Practicality over prediction is key in economic analysis for Ed Hyman, focusing on understanding the present.
Real-time survey data and client insights are prioritized over government data, ensuring objectivity and effective communication.
Economic trends are analyzed through a blend of historical analysis and real-time data, emphasizing adaptability and a comprehensive understanding of market indicators.
Deep dives
Ed Heimann's Remarkable Career and Approach to Economic Analysis
Ed Heimann, an esteemed economic expert, discusses his impressive career and approach to economic analysis. Ranking as the number one economist in the Institutional Investor survey an unprecedented 43 times, Heimann emphasizes the importance of practicality in his work. Focusing on understanding the present instead of predicting the future, he values hard work, practicality, and a client-centric approach to his research.
The Evolution of ISI Group and Intuitive Economic Analysis
Heimann delves into the founding of ISI Group and its integration of research and asset management. He highlights the significance of real-time survey data tracking various industries and sectors, explaining his shift away from relying solely on government data. By prioritizing client insights and practical perspectives, Heimann's methodology emphasizes objectivity, independence, and effective communication.
Insights on Market Cycles, Monetary Policy, and Economic Indicators
Heimann shares insights on market cycles, monetary policy impacts, and economic indicators shaping his views on the current economic landscape. Discussing the challenges of forecasting and interpreting market conditions, he addresses the potential for policy adjustments to influence future outcomes. Combining historical analysis with real-time data, Heimann's approach underscores the importance of adaptability, humility, and a comprehensive understanding of economic trends.
Economic Insights and Monetary Policy in the Past Decades
Reflecting on historical economic trends, the podcast delves into the impact of money supply growth on inflation and the evolution of monetary policy transparency. Highlighting the shift from volatile interest rate changes to a more predictable Fed communication strategy, the discussion emphasizes the significance of tracking indicators like money supply and yield curves for economic analysis.
Global Economic Landscape and Future Trends
Examining the current global economic scenario, the podcast underscores the challenges faced by major economies like China and Europe. With insights on China's economic slowdown and Europe's struggle to recover, the conversation analyzes potential implications for the global economy. Emphasizing the importance of fiscal stimuli and central bank policies, the discussion hints at future trends shaping the economic outlook.
Bloomberg Radio host Barry Ritholtz speaks to Ed Hyman, founder and chairman of Evercore ISI International Ltd. and vice chairman of Evercore Inc. He also heads Evercore ISI’s economic research team. Hyman was the chairman and founder of ISI Group LLC. He previously served as vice chairman and board member of C.J. Lawrence Inc. and was an economic consultant at Data Resources Inc.
