The David Lin Report 'This Market Reminds Me Of 1999': The ‘Tipping Point’ Is Here For Stocks, Economy | Ted Oakley
Sep 19, 2025
Ted Oakley, Founder and Managing Partner of Oxbow Advisors, shares his insights on current economic trends and market conditions. He compares today’s market to the 1999 dot-com bubble, warning of overvalued tech stocks. Oakley critiques the Federal Reserve's decisions amidst high inflation and emphasizes the importance of investing in undervalued dividend-paying companies. He also stresses maintaining defensive positions, such as cash and gold, while exploring potential inflation risks and the evolution of the labor and housing markets.
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Housing Stalls From Price-Wage Mismatch
- Housing stagnation is driven mainly by home prices being far above wages, not current mortgage rates.
- Builders and buyers face a price-wage mismatch that depresses activity and employment in housing-related sectors.
Tariffs Become A Consumer Tipping Point
- Tariff costs have been absorbed temporarily by firms but will eventually be passed to consumers.
- Passing tariffs marks a consumer tipping point that shifts demand from wants to needs and slows discretionary spending.
Lower Rates Must Be Much Bigger To Spur Borrowing
- To stimulate borrowing you need substantially lower short-term and long-term rates, not a 25bp cut.
- Expect businesses to act only when prime and long rates fall roughly 300bps from current levels in Oakley's view.