N N Taleb's Probability Questions (UNOFFICIAL)

Nassim Taleb and Scott Patterson Discuss "Chaos Kings", Part 3 (2024)

Nov 11, 2025
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author and risk analyst known for work on uncertainty and black swans, joins to dissect tail risks and practical hedging. He critiques Ilmanen-style simulations and explains why bonds and correlations fail in crises. They cover pandemics, Universa’s tail-flipping approach, the Precautionary Principle origins, GMO ecosystem risks, and why hedging extremes requires different thinking.
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INSIGHT

Pandemics Are Multiplicative Systemic Risks

  • Pandemics are the dominant low tail-exponent risk because biological threats multiply with modern travel and connectivity.
  • Nassim Nicholas Taleb argues pandemics pose far greater systemic danger than political violence like ISIS.
ADVICE

Assess Insurance Within The Whole Portfolio

  • Evaluate an insurance strategy as part of your full portfolio, not in isolation.
  • Use tail hedges to increase equity exposure because added stock exposure can offset insurance costs.
INSIGHT

Stock-Bond Diversification Myth

  • Historical stock–bond diversification relied on past high bond yields and stable correlations that no longer hold.
  • Taleb warns that modern low-yield bonds and unstable correlations invalidate that old justification.
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