Balance of Power Weekly Washington Policy Pulse: Shutdown Update, Supreme Court Tariff Preview (Nov 3, 2025)
Nov 3, 2025
The podcast dives into the pressing issue of the US government shutdown, discussing potential resolutions and the looming Thanksgiving travel chaos. Insights into the impact of SNAP benefit lapses on major retailers like Walmart and Kroger are also explored. Additionally, the legality of President Trump's reciprocal tariffs is analyzed ahead of Supreme Court oral arguments, with implications for refunds and operational challenges looming. The episode emphasizes the intersection of politics and policy as lawmakers strive to avert disruption.
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Supreme Court Could Upend Reciprocal Tariffs
- The Supreme Court will signal early whether Trump's reciprocal tariffs under IEPA are lawful or not during Wednesday's oral arguments.
- A ruling against the tariffs could force $80–100 billion in messy refunds handled by checks, creating "refund chaos."
Don't Overread Tariff Resolution Votes
- Treat Senate resolutions against specific tariffs as largely symbolic unless the House takes action.
- Expect limited immediate policy change despite votes overturning Canada and Brazil tariffs in the Senate.
SNAP Lapse Is Timing Risk For Grocers
- SNAP benefit lapses create headline and short-term revenue risk for grocers but are likely a timing issue if funding resumes quickly.
- Walmart, Kroger and Albertsons face varying exposure: Walmart ≈25% of SNAP revenue, Kroger ≈8%, Albertsons ≈6%.