Planet Money Jay & Shai's debt ceiling adventure
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Feb 18, 2023 
Shai Akabas, Director of Economic Policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, dives deep into the complexities of the U.S. debt ceiling, currently at $31.4 trillion. He discusses the urgency of upcoming negotiations and the potential economic fallout if Congress fails to act. Shai shares insights from the 2011 debt ceiling crisis, emphasizing the historical context shaping today's discussions. He also explores unconventional strategies, like the trillion-dollar coin, and the vital need for accurate information to avoid an economic disaster.
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2011 Debt Ceiling Crisis
- In 2011, Jay Powell and Shai Akabas teamed up to address the debt ceiling crisis.
- Powell, a future Fed chair, was a volunteer at the Bipartisan Policy Center.
Predicting the X Date
- Predicting the "X date", when the US runs out of money, is complex.
- Government revenue streams and spending patterns are unpredictable.
Spreadsheet Model
- Powell and Akabas used a complex Excel spreadsheet to model government cash flow and predict the X date.
- They started by presenting their findings to junior staff members in Congress.