J.P. Morgan's Gabriela Santos Likes International Stocks for 2024 | #513
Dec 20, 2023
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Gabriela Santos, Chief Market Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management, shares her optimistic view on international stocks. Topics include opportunities in Japan and India, bullishness on Mexico due to nearshoring, and China becoming a tactical trading market.
International exposure in investment portfolios is valuable despite a lack of consensus among professionals and recent shake-ups in global markets signal a new regime favoring international investments.
Monitoring credit risk and business caution, while having core fixed income as a hedge, is crucial as interest rates, refinancing for companies, and the possibility of layoffs pose potential downside risks to growth.
Deep dives
The Opportunity in International Investing
Gabriela Santos believes that there is tremendous value in having international exposure in investment portfolios, despite a lack of consensus among her professional peers. She argues that the recent shake-up in the global markets, which started in October of last year, signals a new regime that favors international investments. Gabriela highlights the positive stories happening in regions like Europe, Japan, India, and Latin America, stressing the potential for growth and alpha in these markets. She encourages investors to look beyond the recency bias and consider the advantages of diversifying internationally.
Credit Risk and Business Caution
While Gabriela sees a soft landing as the base case for the global economy, she acknowledges the potential risks of credit and business caution. With interest rates at elevated levels, refinancing for companies will pick up in the coming months, which could impact credit risk. Gabriela also emphasizes the importance of monitoring business confidence and the possibility of a slowdown in hiring or even layoffs. These factors pose downside risks to growth. In such a scenario, having core fixed income as a hedge and protection against credit risks becomes crucial.
The Potential of Near Shoring in Mexico
Gabriela highlights the concept of near shoring, which refers to companies bringing production closer to end consumers. Mexico, being part of the USMCA and offering competitive manufacturing wages, has become a favored destination for near shoring, especially for US companies. Gabriela points out the booming construction sector in Mexico and the potential for increased employment, rising wages, and greater consumer spending. She sees opportunities for investment in Mexican construction, consumer, and financial sectors, all of which could benefit from near shoring.
China's Volatility and Potential
Gabriela recognizes the wild ride that investing in China can be, given its high beta and market volatility. While acknowledging the risks and occasional pessimism surrounding China, she firmly believes in the value and potential of Chinese investments, particularly in A-shares. Gabriela emphasizes the progress and developments in China's domestic market, which is gradually becoming more attractive to Chinese investors. She points out opportunities in sectors like software, automation, domestic consumption, and renewable energy, highlighting the long-term potential of select parts of the Asian market.
Today’s guest is Gabriela Santos, Chief Market Strategist for the Americas at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
In today’s episode, Gabi shares her view of the world after a year where the Magnificent 7 has dominated the headlines. She hammers home her excited about the opportunity set outside of the U.S. She explains why she likes the set up for Japan and India, why nearshoring is just one of the reasons why she’s bullish on Mexico, and why she thinks China has become more of a tactical trading market.
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