The Contrarian Investor Podcast Prepare for End of US Dollar Cycle, as Emerging Markets Rise: Rohit Goel, Breakout Capital
Feb 13, 2025
Rohit Goel, a portfolio manager at Breakout Capital specializing in emerging markets, shares insights on the impending end of the US dollar cycle. He discusses how the dominance of the dollar and US assets is due for a reversal. Emerging markets like India and Greece are becoming increasingly competitive, signaling a shift in global growth dynamics. Goel also highlights the challenges facing big tech stocks, suggesting that the optimism surrounding them may be overly inflated as investment opportunities evolve towards more resilient markets.
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Market Reversal
- US dollar dominance and strong U.S. asset performance are expected to reverse soon.
- Emerging markets are poised for a bullish cycle, according to Rohit Goel.
Dollar Cycle Peak
- The US dollar's cyclical peak signals a likely downturn, not necessarily replacement.
- Historical cycles suggest a dollar correction after 14 years of a bull market.
Dollar Strength Factors
- Three factors support the dollar's strength: US economic strength, equity market performance, and government support.
- Government support through deficits and hiring is unlikely to continue indefinitely.