Swamp Notes: GOP primaries and the power of incumbency
Jan 27, 2024
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Nikki Haley, former South Carolina Governor, discusses the power of incumbency and the Republican primaries. Topics include Trump's strong performance, Haley's determination to challenge him, and the impact of Trump's legal troubles on voters' opinions.
Former President Donald Trump's influence as an incumbent has been a key factor in attracting loyal supporters and winning the Republican primaries.
Nikki Haley's effort to appeal to more moderate Republicans and independents failed in New Hampshire, highlighting the power of Trump's incumbency among his supporters.
Deep dives
Primary challengers and the inevitability of Trump as the nominee
Despite the Republican primaries being relatively unsurprising, it is clear that former President Donald Trump is set to face President Joe Biden in the November election. This raises the question of what motivated the candidates who challenged Trump in the primaries. For instance, Ron DeSantis invested heavily in Iowa, but finished second and subsequently dropped out. Nikki Haley, who aimed to build a coalition of more moderate Republicans and independents, also fell short, securing second place in New Hampshire. Trump's influence as an incumbent, despite not holding office for four years, has been a key factor in attracting loyal supporters.
Haley's strategy and the power of Trump's incumbency
Nikki Haley's effort to appeal to both more moderate Republicans and independent voters in New Hampshire ultimately failed. However, it was notable how many Trump supporters considered him as though he were an incumbent, wanting to give him another four-year term. This speaks to the underestimated influence and power of Trump's incumbency throughout the primary process. Ron DeSantis, on the other hand, did not campaign in New Hampshire and eventually dropped out, reflecting his dwindling chances in the race.
Trump's strengths and vulnerabilities, legal troubles, and electoral liability
Although Trump remains the frontrunner and his victories in Iowa and New Hampshire are significant, his performance fell short of impressive. He struggled to secure over 50% of the Republican votes in both states, exposing potential vulnerabilities. Trump's ongoing legal troubles and indictments have influenced voter sentiments, with some perceiving him as a victim of political persecution, while others see him as a criminal not fit for higher office. The Haley campaign's argument about Trump's poor performance as an incumbent and the perception of a two-tier justice system plays a role in shaping voters' perspectives. However, Haley's electability argument has yet to gain traction within the passionate and ideologically driven Republican party.
So far the Republican primaries have had very few surprises. Former President Donald Trump continues to be the favourite. On the first episode of Swamp Notes, the FT’s Lauren Fedor and Peter Spiegel unpack how Trump is winning these races as if he were an incumbent, what was in it for the other Republican candidates, and why former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley is staying in the race.