The Investor's Guide to China: In conversation with Louis-Vincent Gave (#25)
Oct 25, 2023
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Louis-Vincent Gave, founder and CEO of Gavekal, joins Catherine Yeung in Hong Kong to discuss China's AI landscape, the bond market, and the internationalisation of the renminbi. They explore topics such as China's real estate reliance, the rise and fall of Chinese dominance in AI, opportunities and challenges in the AI ecosystem, China's diversification away from US flows, and potential investing opportunities.
China's shift from exporting low-value-added goods to higher-value-added goods has led to a trade surplus and a new wave of globalization that doesn't involve the Western world.
China's bond market has been a stable and good performing asset class, outperforming US treasuries and creating potential challenges for the US dollar's global dominance as global trade opens up to more currencies and funding options.
Deep dives
China's Divergence from the West
China's divergence from the West has increased on many levels, particularly in terms of investment flows and supply chains. While factories have moved from China to other countries, China has also made efforts to de-westernize its own supply chains. China has shifted from exporting low-value-added goods to higher-value-added goods, leading to a trade surplus and taking over emerging markets. This represents a new wave of globalization that doesn't involve the Western world.
Implications of Real Estate Slowdown
The real estate market slowdown in China has impacted perceptions of savings and consumer confidence. Real estate has been a major driver of savings in China, and with the market decline, households with majority assets tied up in real estate don't feel as financially secure. However, the slowdown in real estate hasn't caused the Chinese economy to implode, as other drivers such as the moving up the value chain in exports, trade surplus, and consumption are still holding up.
The Evolution of AI in China
AI in China has been expensive but promising. While there was initially an expectation that China would dominate AI due to its access to massive data sets, Western advances have leapfrogged China in the AI field. However, there is still a lot of potential in China for AI, with attractive value plays in the market. Chinese companies remain positive about AI and are optimistic about the strategic opportunities it brings.
China's Bond Market and Global Impact
China's bond market has been a stable and good performing asset class, outperforming US treasuries and offering a diversification opportunity for portfolios. China has been actively encouraging more countries to use the RMB and invest in Chinese bonds. This reduces the need for US dollars as global trade opens up to more currencies and funding options, creating potential challenges for the US dollar's global dominance.
In this special edition of The Investor’s Guide to China, Catherine Yeung, Investment Director, is joined in Hong Kong by Louis-Vincent Gave, the founder and CEO of Gavekal, a leading independent provider of global investment research.
They tackle questions from the development of China’s AI landscape and what it means for the country’s youth unemployment, to what the stellar performance of the Chinese bond market means for the country, and the internationalisation of the renminbi.
With an additional contribution from Portfolio Manager Tina Tian.