Why Japanese Stocks Could Outperform with Howard Smith - FEG Insight Bridge
Mar 5, 2025
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Howard Smith, a veteran in Japanese investments and Partner at Indus Capital, joins Greg Dowling, Chief Investment Officer at FEG Investment Advisors, to discuss why Japan may surprise investors in the coming decade. They debunk myths surrounding Japan's investment climate, focusing on the undervalued yen and improving corporate governance. The conversation highlights booming opportunities in tech and addresses fiscal sustainability amid Japan's debt. Cultural nuances and economic history enrich their insights, making Japan a captivating investment destination.
Investors are beginning to shift their perceptions of Japan's market viability due to improving corporate governance and investment opportunities.
Japan's resurgence in the semiconductor industry, paired with significant foreign investment, positions the country favorably for future economic growth.
Deep dives
Warren Buffett's Investment in Japan
Warren Buffett's decision to invest in Japanese companies marks a significant moment in the realm of international investments, especially concerning Japan. Buffett cited the impressive financial records of these Japanese firms, noting their operations are akin to Berkshire Hathaway's own business principles. This renewed interest comes in contrast to the historically perceived challenges within the Japanese market, including an aging demographic and previous stagnation. Despite these challenges, Buffett anticipates increasing his stake, reflecting a potential shift in how investors view Japan's long-term market viability.
Changing Economic Landscape in Japan
In recent years, Japan is gradually emerging from a prolonged period of low economic growth and inflation, which has contributed to its perception as a less favorable investment destination. Howard Smith, a portfolio manager with extensive experience in Japanese equities, believes that Japan's prolonged struggle is not a permanent state, hinting at an impending resurgence over the next decade. He argues against the false narratives that Japan cannot deliver substantial returns, emphasizing the unique strengths within its economy. As Japan resynchronizes itself on the global stage, it presents new opportunities for investors willing to look beyond outdated perceptions.
The Semiconductor Industry and B2B Opportunities
Japan's involvement in the semiconductor industry is pivotal, showcasing its critical role in the global manufacturing supply chain. As the country embraces a resurgence in semiconductor production, it is benefitting from an influx of foreign investment and the return of companies that previously relocated operations overseas. Major players are setting up facilities in Japan, which enhances the competitive landscape and potentially reduces reliance on any single geographical area, particularly as global tensions rise. This strategic positioning offers substantial prospects for investors looking to engage with advanced manufacturing and technology sectors in Japan.
Cultural Evolution and Corporate Governance
The evolution of Japan's corporate governance landscape signifies a broader acceptance of foreign investment and a push towards improved accountability among management teams. Increased activism by both domestic and foreign investors has led to a more open marketplace for corporate control, as seen in the potential acquisition of 7-Eleven by Couchtard. This event highlights a shift towards enhanced shareholder engagement and demands for improved capital efficiency. Ultimately, this transformation not only cultivates a more competitive business environment but also bolsters investor confidence in Japan's overarching economic narrative.
This week on episode 514, we share a conversation between Howard Smith of Indus Capital and Greg Dowling of FEG Investment Advisors on why Japan could surprise investors over the next decade with strong investment returns. David introduces the episode by sharing his key takeaways from the discussion.
FEG Investment Advisor is David's former institutional advisory firm, where he worked for 17 years, before founding Money for the Rest of Us. Greg Dowling is Chief Investment Officer of FEG, and David's former business partner and colleague.
Topics covered in the episode include:
The false narrative that Japan is a difficult place to invest with subpar returns
Why Japan's national debt problem is not as worrisome as the U.S. national debt