The Investor's Guide to China: Cities and migration (#28)
Mar 8, 2024
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Fidelity International's Asia Economist and Eight Roads' Managing Partner discuss Chinese migration trends impacting the economy, city development, unicorn potential, and property markets. They delve into internal migration, urban innovation hubs, local government competition, real estate transformation, and the influence of corporations on home prices. The podcast explores interconnected factors shaping China's future growth and implications for investors.
Migration shapes China's economy from rural to urban areas, impacting labor and capital productivity.
China's shift towards innovation emphasizes attracting skilled labor for high-tech industries and startup success.
Differences in consumption patterns between cities reveal varying consumer behaviors, influencing global brand preferences.
Deep dives
Migration's Role in Chinese Economy Evolution
Understanding the significance of migration within China is essential for grasping the changing demographics and potential economic impacts. The historical rural-urban migration in China played a pivotal role in unleashing capital and labor productivity, driving decades of economic growth. The evolution of the Hukou system, which ties social benefits to birthplace, has influenced internal migration patterns, gradually allowing more movement from rural to urban areas. The shift towards innovation-driven growth models emphasizes the importance of quality labor immigration over expanding mega-cities.
Startup Landscape and Migration in China
Early migration in China primarily supported manufacturing and industrial sectors, driving rapid economic growth. The next growth wave focuses on high-tech, technology, and biotech industries, necessitating a different skilled labor force. The movement of people within and outside China for education and job opportunities impacts the startup scene, attracting talent back to China. The innovation-driven migration trend highlights the importance of attracting skilled individuals to develop the next generation of successful companies.
Consumer Trends Across City Tiers in China
Differences in consumption patterns between top-tier and lower-tier cities in China reflect varying consumer behaviors and preferences. Urban areas like Beijing exhibit higher consumption of international and prestige brands, driven by well-educated individuals in dynamic environments. Movement of people between cities influences consumer spending habits, educating individuals on product choices and impacting consumption patterns at local and global brand levels.
Real Estate Sector Implications and Investment Strategies
China's real estate sector reflects the broader economic trends, with urban renewal projects and evolving market dynamics. Higher-tier cities demonstrate more stable home prices due to resilient industries and population growth. Investment recommendations emphasize focusing on developers in resilient city markets with robust balance sheets. Future growth projections suggest continued outperformance of higher-tier cities over lower-tier counterparts.
Outlook on Migration and Innovation Hubs in China
The future of migration in China aligns with the development of cosmopolitan areas across the country, fostering competitive advantages and attracting talent. The establishment of mega-city hubs with top-down facilitation and bottom-up identification of strengths drives migration trends. Education emerges as a key driver of innovation and attraction, with a focus on creating innovation ecosystems to sustain growth. China's evolution towards balanced development models and innovation hubs shapes the outlook for migration and economic growth.
Where people live within China - and why - is fundamental to understanding the country’s changing demographics. That, in turn, has important implications for the Chinese economy, consumption trends, and where investors should be looking.
In this episode, Catherine Yeung, Investment Director, and Marty Dropkin, Head of Equities, Asia Pacific, take you across China through the lens of Fidelity International’s Asia Economist, Peiqian Liu, and Jarlon Tsang, Managing Partner and Head of China at the venture capital firm Eight Roads, Fidelity’s sister company.
What role do migrants play in the past, present, and future development of the Chinese economy? Which Chinese provinces and cities could be home to the next unicorn? What do emerging migration patterns mean for China's cities and their businesses? And what does all of it mean for property markets?
With additional contributions from Portfolio Manager Hyomi Jie and Shanghai-based analysts Eric Zhu and Fiona Shou.