Maggie Lake Talking Markets Episode 71: Are Bonds About To Break Out? With Bob Elliott.
Jul 16, 2025
Bob Elliott, CIO of Unlimited Funds and PM of $HFGM & $HFND, shares his insights on the economic landscape as we move towards a predicted 'season of disappointment' in the second half of 2025. He dives into the complexities of the U.S. economy and discusses foreign treasury investments, market reactions to potential Fed leadership changes, and the implications for bond markets. Elliott also analyzes the rising interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum and highlights institutional underexposure to U.S. equities as key factors affecting future investment strategies.
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Foreign Buying Key for Treasuries
- Foreign private investors have been the biggest buyers of US treasury duration, buying 100% of it in 2024 fiscal year.
- A slow shift is likely as these investors reduce their US asset overweight, marking a potential long-term dollar weakness period.
Income-Driven Expansion Weakens Demand
- The US economy is weaker than Fed presents, with zero real consumer spending growth in 2025.
- Income-driven expansion shows wage growth and job growth combine to yield 0% real income growth, weighing on demand.
Gold Hedge if Fed Chair Fired
- Firing the Fed chair mainly impacts the dollar and gold prices, less so bonds or stocks.
- Gold is the best hedge in this scenario, as it historically protects against currency risks.