Josh Keating, a senior correspondent at Vox specializing in foreign policy, discusses the stunning recent downfall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. He delves into how rebels managed to capture key cities like Aleppo and Damascus, reflecting on the regime's violent strategies and declining popularity. The conversation explores shifting alliances, the role of international supporters, and the implications for Syria's future governance under new factions. Keating also highlights the geopolitical significance of Syria, especially concerning Iran, Russia, and the U.S.
The swift overthrow of Assad's regime by Syrian rebels revealed the impact of shifting international dynamics and weakening support from allies like Russia and Iran.
The evolution of rebel forces, particularly with HTS now leading, raises critical concerns about future governance and potential sectarian tensions in a post-Assad Syria.
Deep dives
The Surge of Syrian Rebels
The recent surge of Syrian rebels marked a significant turning point in the country's long-standing civil war, culminating in the swift overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad. Within just a week, rebels captured key cities such as Aleppo, Hama, and Damascus, following years of brutal conflict. This rapid sequence of events was unexpected as the regime's forces seemed to wither away, abandoning their posts and uniforms instead of mounting a fierce defense. The reactions on social media reflected overwhelming joy among Syrians and the global community, as citizens celebrated the fall of one of the world's most notorious dictators.
The Role of External Forces
The dynamic shift in power can be attributed to changing relations among international players, particularly Russia and Iran, who have historically propped up Assad's regime. The withdrawal of Russian military support, due in part to their commitments in Ukraine, coupled with a weakened Hezbollah, left Assad vulnerable. As a result, rebel forces gained unexpected momentum, capturing strategic locations without facing the intense military opposition that had been anticipated. The lack of involvement from Western powers, especially the U.S., has led to speculation about the future political landscape in Syria.
Evolving Rebel Dynamics
The composition of the rebel forces has evolved significantly since the initial pro-democratic movements began in 2011, now being largely led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group with past affiliations to Al-Qaeda. While many may see them as a continuation of hardline Islamist ideology, HTS has presented itself as a more moderate faction, emphasizing stability and governance in areas under its control. This contrast raises questions about the future governance of a post-Assad Syria, especially considering the potential for sectarian tensions. Observers remain cautious, fearing that HTS's rhetoric may mask a return to oppressive measures similar to that of the Taliban.
After more than a decade of civil war, Syrian rebels have toppled President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in just about a week. How was the dictator finally deposed, and what comes next for the war-torn country?
Guest: Josh Keating, senior correspondent at Vox covering foreign policy.
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Podcast production by Elena Schwartz, Paige Osburn, Anna Phillips, Madeline Ducharme and Rob Gunther.