Marketplace All-in-One Why Wall Street isn't betting on a wider war in the Middle East
Jun 24, 2025
Tensions in the Israel-Iran conflict are affecting financial markets, yet Wall Street remains cautiously optimistic. Despite the chaos, there's an air of calm as Iran seems to play a careful game, acknowledging its constraints. Meanwhile, the oil market experiences dips in demand, impacting U.S. frackers. On another front, NATO gears up for a significant military spending increase, aiming to bolster defense capabilities in light of global pressures. A fascinating look at how geopolitics intersects with finance!
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Iran's Calculated Restraint
- Iran is cautious in the conflict as it cannot deter the U.S. and Israel effectively.
- This risk aversion prevents Iran from escalating the war further despite tensions.
China's Role Limited on Iran's Caution
- China prefers stability and no oil disruptions from Iran but Iran's caution is independent of China's stance.
- Iran avoids striking Gulf energy to not provoke war with the U.S. and Gulf states.
Oil Market Softens Geopolitical Impact
- Global crude oil demand is down, and supply is abundant, easing pricing pressures.
- High supply and moderate demand reduce the impact of geopolitical risks on oil distribution.