Know Your Risk Podcast Conversation with Stephen Miran - August 9, 2024
Aug 8, 2025
Stephen Miran, an asset management expert at Hudson Bay and co-author with Nouriel Roubini, shares his insights on economic dynamics and Treasury policies. He discusses the impact of current labor market trends on unemployment and the complexities of interest rates. Miran critiques Federal Reserve policies and their inflationary risks, while navigating the intricacies of U.S. Treasury debt management. His perspectives on balancing growth and stability make for an enlightening conversation about today’s economic challenges.
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PhD Trained, Market Tested
- Stephen Miran left academia for markets and spent his career in investment management after his PhD.
- He says his first job in currency markets "quickly got [him] disabused of 70% of what [he] thought [he] knew about economics."
What Activist Treasury Issuance Is
- Activist Treasury Issuance (ATI) means Treasury shifted issuance toward short-term bills and away from longer-term notes.
- Miran argues that change reduces market duration risk and acts like QE by increasing money-like assets.
Treasury's Shortening Was Large ($800B)
- Miran estimates ATI's impact equals roughly an $800 billion QE program by the Fed.
- He notes that scale materially loosened financial conditions relative to the Fed's tightening intent.