BTC Sessions

If You Don't Get Global Liquidity, You Don't Get The Everything Bubble | Michael Howell

Oct 13, 2026
Guest
Michael Howell
Michael Howell, global macro strategist, CrossBorder Capital founder, and author of Capital Wars, explores the forces shaping markets beneath the surface. He discusses the debt maturity wall, Treasury QE, repo stress, bond volatility, and AI’s pull on capital. Howell also explains Bitcoin’s role as a “liquidity sponge,” Europe’s missing safe asset, and why China may be following Japan’s path.
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INSIGHT

Liquidity Is Rising While Momentum Cracks

  • Global liquidity is still rising, but its growth momentum is rolling over and pressuring bonds, small caps, and credit.
  • Bitcoin may resist the signal because its long-term adoption trend overlays the cyclical liquidity pattern.
INSIGHT

The Liquidity Cycle Is A Debt Refinancing Cycle

  • The five-to-six-year liquidity cycle largely reflects the average maturity of global debt and its refinancing schedule.
  • Roughly 80% of primary financial-market transactions refinance existing debt rather than fund new capital expenditure.
INSIGHT

Treasury QE Replaces Traditional Fed QE

  • Treasury QE monetizes government spending through short-term bill issuance bought by banks and credit providers.
  • Unlike traditional Fed QE, this liquidity initially flows through procurement and the real economy, while expanding bank balance sheets.
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