The Exchange Inflation Cools, Metals Dip and the Christmas Countdown is on 10/24/25
Oct 24, 2025
In this discussion, Krishna Guha, vice chairman at Evercore ISI, breaks down the recent cooler CPI print and its implications for Fed rate cuts while highlighting trends in corporate layoffs and labor markets. Barry Knapp from Ironside's Macroeconomics shares insights on inflation's impact on fiscal policy and his views on sector positioning, favoring cyclicals over tech. Francisco Blanche of BofA Securities analyzes the recent decline in gold's value and the oil market's dynamics, emphasizing the need for cautious investment strategies.
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Benign CPI Gives Fed Room To Cut
- Krishna Guha calls the September CPI "benign" for markets due to cooler-than-expected core inflation and muted tariff pass-through.
- He argues this gives the Fed room to cut rates in October and December amid labor softness.
Watch Weekly Claims For Labor Risk
- Guha warns the Fed will closely watch aggregate layoffs and weekly UI claims for signs of labor deterioration.
- He stresses separating federal furlough effects from underlying private-sector payroll trends when assessing the labor market.
Tariff Pass-Through Is Gradual, Not Explosive
- Guha says tariffs have raised goods inflation but pass-through has been slower and more gradual than feared.
- Firms are absorbing costs via supplier shifts and productivity, so tariff impact may be protracted but less explosive.