Colin P. Clarke, a counterterrorism analyst, discusses ISIS's recent attack in Moscow, the motivations behind targeting Russia, and the global implications. The podcast explores ISIS-K's global network, resurgence in multiple regions, media bias in terrorism coverage, Al-Qaeda's comeback, Hamas's potential transformation, and the challenges of counterterrorism funding amidst great power competition.
ISIS-K targets Russia due to geopolitical reasons and historical grievances, expanding its global reach beyond traditional enemies.
ISIS-K's operational capabilities, diverse recruitment sources, and aim to reestablish a caliphate pose significant challenges worldwide for counterterrorism efforts.
Deep dives
ISIS-K's Motive Behind the Moscow Attack Linked to Anti-Shia Stance
ISIS-K's attack on Moscow is motivated by its view of Russia as propping up Shia Islam, aligning with Assad, and cooperating with Iran and Hezbollah. Historical perceptions of Russian violence against Muslims, dating back to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and conflicts in the North Caucasus, also contribute to ISIS-K's actions.
ISIS-K's Global Targets and Non-Discriminatory Approach
ISIS-K's global targets include Iran, Turkey, Russia, and the United States, with attacks planned and executed in various parts of the world. The group's focus spreads across different regions, criticizing Chinese repression and demonstrating a lack of differentiation towards regimes it opposes.
ISIS-K's Operational Capabilities and Affiliation with Islamic State of Khorasan
ISIS-K is part of the global Islamic State network with strong operational capabilities and connections to Afghanistan. The group's affiliation with the Islamic State of Khorasan makes it a potent threat similar to AQAP, known for launching sophisticated and strategic attacks, especially troubling in Afghanistan with the Taliban as the primary barrier.
ISIS-K's Recruitment Strategy and Growth Post-Taliban Takeover in Afghanistan
ISIS-K draws recruits from various regions, including Central Asia and the Caucasus, leveraging a regional network for expansion. The group benefits from the Taliban's harsh rule, pushing individuals towards joining, with concerns about threats extending to neighboring countries like Pakistan. ISIS-K's aim globally is to reestablish a caliphate and cause disruption akin to its peak years, posing a significant challenge for counterinsurgency efforts.
The Islamic State claimed responsibility for the recent attack in Moscow that killed at least 139 people. It was the country’s deadliest terrorist attack in more than a decade. Why did the Islamic State choose Russia as a target? And what does this mean for terrorism globally?
Counterterrorism analyst and regular FP contributor Colin P. Clarke shares his insights with Ravi Agrawal. Clarke also serves as a senior research fellow at the Soufan Center.