The Macro Minute with Darius Dale Will the inflation cycle continue to behave?
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Jan 13, 2026 The discussion highlights why December's CPI suggests ongoing disinflation but not quicker Fed cuts. A softening labor market may ease inflationary pressures, affecting future policies. Darius also notes the significant roles of financials and homebuilders in 2026 as the market broadens beyond AI trades. He emphasizes the strength of small business data in supporting lower inflation and advises retail investors to focus on low-cost index exposure to mitigate risk.
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Disinflation Without Faster Fed Cuts
- December CPI showed continued disinflation but didn't push the Fed toward faster rate cuts.
- Softer labor market dynamics imply inflation will matter less for future rate decisions.
Commodities Could Offset Shelter And Wage Disinflation
- Weak negative impulses in core CPI and shelter point to cooling wage and housing pressures.
- Strong food and energy impulses could offset disinflation from wages and housing.
Small Business Data Supports Jobless Recovery
- The NFIB Small Business survey supported the jobless recovery thesis and cooling wage and housing pressures.
- That supports expectations for disinflation and downside surprises in reported inflation over the medium term.