Raphael Arndt, CIO of Australia’s sovereign wealth fund, discusses portfolio management, infrastructure investments, public and private markets, venture capital, team dynamics, compensation, views on China, and the current market environment. They also explore the creation of the Future Fund, investment strategy, managing assets, portfolio positioning, US vs Aussie investors, improving operations, and favorite achievements. They admire Walt Disney as an innovator and emphasize the importance of hard work and being prepared to take risks.
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Quick takeaways
The Future Fund follows a one-team, one-portfolio philosophy, focusing on building a diversified portfolio for the entire fund rather than diversifying individual asset class portfolios.
The Future Fund emphasizes being nimble and flexible in their investments, adjusting their strategies based on market conditions and potential downsides.
The Future Fund prioritizes private equity and venture capital investments, conducting due diligence to select managers with proven skill and alignment, while also strategically utilizing co-investments.
Deep dives
Investment Philosophy and Approach
The Futures Fund, Australia's $145 billion Sovereign Wealth Fund, follows a one-team, one-portfolio philosophy, emphasizing a total portfolio approach. They focus on building a diversified portfolio that makes sense for the whole fund rather than diversifying individual asset class portfolios. They use technology to measure performance and analyze factors to identify sources of return and skill. The fund primarily uses external managers for implementation and scrutinizes managers for skill and alignment before investing. They also emphasize being nimble and flexible, being prepared to adjust their investments based on market conditions.
The Formation of the Future Fund
The Future Fund was established in 2006 by the Australian government to invest surplus funds and offset unfunded pension liabilities. Initially, the fund had 60 billion Australian dollars, with the majority in cash and some in shares of Telstra. The fund started investing during the financial crisis in 2008, taking advantage of market opportunities and deploying a significant portion into credit investments. They have structured their equity portfolio to focus on low-cost beta exposures and factor-based strategies. Furthermore, they have a flexible approach and are cautious about potential downsides such as an anticipated recession in the US and rising populism around the world.
Approach to Private Equity and Venture Capital
The Future Fund focuses on private equity and venture capital investments that can add value to their portfolio. They primarily invest with managers who have proven skill and have the potential to improve businesses. The fund has a preference for smaller managers with a focus on growth equity and venture capital rather than large buyout strategies. They conduct due diligence to analyze managers' track records, factors contributing to their performance, and alignment with their own investment philosophy. Additionally, they strategically utilize co-investments alongside managers they trust to gain insights into the manager's process and to benefit from specific investment opportunities.
Portfolio Positioning and Risk Management
The Future Fund employs a disciplined approach to portfolio positioning and risk management. They run liquidity stress tests to ensure they can withstand volatile market conditions. Currently, they maintain a slightly below neutral risk exposure due to concerns about downside risks such as a potential US recession and the impact of global populism on economic growth. They believe the opportunity cost of reducing risk now outweighs potential short-term gains. The fund aims to balance risk and return and remains open to adjusting the portfolio as market conditions evolve.
Long-term focus and risk assessment
The podcast highlights the importance of maintaining a long-term focus and considering risk in investment decisions. With a primary focus on long-term goals, the speaker emphasizes the advantage of not being constrained by short-term performance pressures. The podcast also discusses the need to assess risk, not just returns, and mentions volatility and the Sharpe ratio as important measures. Overall, the speaker underscores the significance of aligning investments with long-term objectives and prioritizing risk management.
Collaborative and diverse decision-making
The podcast episode emphasizes a collaborative and diverse approach to decision-making. The speaker discusses the importance of a team-based effort, trust, and empowerment in the investment process. The speaker also highlights the value of diversity of thinking and bringing together individuals with different backgrounds and perspectives. Additionally, the speaker emphasizes the importance of fostering a culture of open debate, avoiding a blame-focused mindset, and learning from decisions. Overall, the speaker emphasizes the significance of collaboration, diverse perspectives, and a supportive culture in decision-making.
Raff Arndt is the Chief Investment Officer of Australia’s AUZ$145 billion Sovereign Wealth Fund, the Future Fund. He trained as an engineer and dove into infrastructure policy at the beginning of Australia’s privatizations in the late 1990s. After investing in the space for six year, he joined the Future Fund in 2008 to head the infrastructure team. Six years later, Raff became CIO.
Our conversation spans all aspects of the management of a next generation institutional portfolio, including a one team, one portfolio philosophy, disaggregating beta and factors from skill in public markets, separating the impact of leverage and timing from skill in private markets, venture capital and co-investment opportunities in a large pool of capital, the option value of flexibility, the team required to make decisions in this format, compensation, fees, views on China, and the current market environment.
Australia created the Future Fund only eleven years ago with a mandate to compound capital for 20 years before even contemplating withdrawals. It has been described to me as a pool of capital with the size and transparency of CalPERS and the sophistication of Yale. I’m sure you’ll soon understand why.