LessWrong (Curated & Popular) "Scientific breakthroughs of the year" by technicalities
Dec 17, 2025
Frustrated with mainstream science journalism, the hosts tackle the year's scientific results with a systematic approach. They discuss gaps in reporting, such as lack of linkages to original research and neglect of important fields. Hear about the various types of evidence—like speculation versus established fact—and how they assess replication probabilities. The innovative 'Big If True' scale reveals the potential impact of these findings. Plus, they navigate biases and the newsworthiness of results, highlighting both promising breakthroughs and cautionary tales.
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Origin Story Of The Project
- Gavin became frustrated with mainstream science journalism and decided to do something different.
- He and two collaborators created a curated, systematic list to improve rigor and clarity in science coverage.
Clear Evidence Tiers
- The team classifies evidence into speculation, demo, RCT, real-world evidence, and established fact to communicate certainty.
- This framework forces clearer distinctions between very preliminary claims and robust results.
Probability Plus Penalized Impact
- They estimate a probability a result will generalize and a 'Big If True' impact score to weight importance.
- Combining linear probability with a log impact score penalizes extreme claims and improves newsworthiness.