The Wolf Of All Streets “The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is DEAD! Here’s What Replaces It" | James Lavish
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Nov 30, 2025 
James Lavish, a former hedge fund manager and Bitcoin macro investor, discusses the end of the traditional four-year Bitcoin halving cycle. He emphasizes that Bitcoin's future movements will be influenced by global liquidity cycles and Fed policy rather than halvings. James highlights the implications of shrinking bank reserves and the potential for currency debasement. He argues that owning assets like Bitcoin is essential for protecting purchasing power and predicts a price surge to $150k–$180k as liquidity returns.
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Liquidity Cycles Replace Halving Rhythm
- James Lavish says the four-year Bitcoin halving cycle is dead and has been replaced by longer global liquidity cycles.
- He expects a multi-year liquidity dynamic (6–7 years) to drive Bitcoin, not just halvings.
Dollar Funding Strains Show In Bitcoin
- James links recent Bitcoin weakness to contracting global liquidity and tighter overnight dollar markets.
- He highlights bank reserve declines and SOFR spikes as early signs of liquidity stress that moved markets.
Position For Fast Liquidity Reaction
- James expects Fed liquidity additions soon and says Bitcoin can react within weeks to a liquidity flood.
- Do position for a liquidity-driven Bitcoin move that may show up in 6–10 weeks after policy easings.