Redefining Energy 210. Our Predictions for 2026
35 snips
Jan 5, 2026 The hosts dive into last year's predictions, reflecting on both triumphs and flops. They discuss the surprising collapse of hydrogen transport and a potential oversupply in the LNG market. Predictions for 2026 include China achieving battery costs of $40/kWh and a decline in wind and solar installs. The fate of proposed data centers hangs in the balance as too many projects spark a credit crisis. Additionally, an ongoing battle over the GHG Protocol promises to become heated.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Geopolitics Distorted Oil Forecasts
- Geopolitics kept oil prices higher and delayed expected US production declines.
- Timing matters: Michael admits he was off by months, not the thesis.
China's Reserve Buying Skewed Oil Signals
- Michael recounts China's strategic buying and reserve accumulation as a key reason oil prices stayed higher.
- He admits his US production prediction failed mainly on timing, not thesis.
Hydrogen Loses Ground In Transport
- Battery electric vehicles massively outcompeted hydrogen in heavy transport, especially in China.
- Michael tracked many firms abandoning hydrogen or pivoting away from transport applications.