Holden Karnofsky, Executive Director of Open Philanthropy Project, discusses the transformative power of philanthropy in driving impactful change. He highlights the successes of the Green Revolution and contraception research, emphasizing the role of philanthropists in taking risks on new ideas. The podcast also explores the long-term plans of Open Philanthropy, the importance of hiring the right people, and the potential transformative power of artificial intelligence. Job opportunities at Open Philanthropy are mentioned at the end.
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Quick takeaways
Philanthropists have played a crucial role in funding scientific breakthroughs that transformed the world.
Open Philanthropy focuses on neglected and high-risk causes, aiming to have a broad and long-term impact.
Open Philanthropy prioritizes hiring individuals with deep expertise and connections in specific causes.
The 50 40 10 rule is used by Open Philanthropy to assess and balance grant decisions.
Foundations should hire individuals with a breadth of knowledge and the ability to adapt to goals and priorities.
Allocating resources and managing impact in philanthropy require careful consideration of values, trade-offs, and different worldviews.
Deep dives
The Impact of Effective Altruism
Holden Kannoski, the co-founder of GiveWell and now the executive director of the Open Philanthropy project, discusses the impact of effective altruism and their goal of finding the highest impact grant opportunities. GiveWell started in 2007 with the aim of helping people give to charity in the most effective way possible. They faced challenges in finding charities with proven cost-effectiveness and evidence-based interventions. As a result, they founded GiveWell, which publishes research online and recommends charities based on their cost-effectiveness, rigorous evidence, and room for additional funding. GiveWell has been successful in directing millions of dollars to recommended charities. Open Philanthropy, a collaboration with Good Ventures, focuses on areas that are important, neglected, and intractable. They work on a wide range of causes, including criminal justice reform, farm animal welfare, global catastrophic risks, and scientific research funding. The philosophy of Open Philanthropy is to fund projects with potentially high risks and long-term impacts. They aim to tackle neglected issues, explore X-factors for the long-term future, and make philanthropy a more intellectual topic for discussion.
Lessons from the History of Philanthropy
The history of philanthropy provides valuable insights. Examples such as the Green Revolution, funded by the Rockefeller Foundation, and the development of the pill with support from feminist philanthropists, demonstrated how philanthropy can have far-reaching impacts. Private philanthropy played a crucial role in these successes and sometimes addressed areas that weren't government priorities. Learning from these historical examples, Open Philanthropy aims to fund innovative and neglected causes, such as criminal justice reform and farm animal welfare. The history of philanthropy also highlights the importance of building new fields, making high-risk investments, and having a broad impact. Philanthropists need to carefully choose causes, build the right team, and focus on areas that have the potential for significant positive change.
Hiring for Impact
Open Philanthropy strives to hire individuals with deep expertise and connections to specific causes. They utilize a work trial approach to simulate working together and assess candidates' abilities. Program officers have a significant level of autonomy to make grant decisions, following a hits-based giving approach. This approach aims to minimize decision-making bottlenecks and allow those with field expertise to lead the grant-making process. However, accountability is maintained through a review process by the executive director and president of Open Philanthropy. The emphasis is on finding individuals who can communicate effectively, demonstrate systematized thinking, and maintain connections within their field. Open Philanthropy values hiring individuals who have a broad perspective and can think creatively about their cause area.
The 50 40 10 rule for assessing grants
One of the main insights discussed in the podcast is the 50 40 10 rule used by the speaker to assess grants. This rule suggests that 50% of grants should be classified as good, meaning that the decision makers are convinced of the case for the grant. Another 40% can be classified as okay, as they have potential but may require more convincing. The remaining 10% is discretionary and allows program officers to quickly approve grants without extensive review. This rule aims to strike a balance in portfolio management, empowering program officers to quickly execute grants while ensuring thorough evaluation for the majority of grants.
Hiring challenges in philanthropy
The podcast episode also discusses the challenges of hiring in philanthropy. One key point made is that foundations often hire individuals with limited experience in philanthropy, which may lead to a risk of them continuing to do what they are familiar with rather than adapting to the foundation's goals and priorities. The importance of hiring individuals with a breadth of knowledge and who can understand different aspects of a field is emphasized. Additionally, the episode highlights the challenge of receiving honest feedback in a philanthropic setting, where many individuals may be hesitant to criticize due to the power dynamics of funding relationships. Building trust and encouraging open communication is considered crucial for program officers in order to make informed decisions and avoid potential mistakes.
Allocating resources and managing impact
The discussion in the podcast touches on the challenge of allocating resources and managing impact in philanthropy. One strategy mentioned is the concept of the last dollar question, which aims to determine whether a grant would do more good compared to alternative uses of the same funds. The speaker emphasizes the difficulty of quantitatively estimating cost-effectiveness in philanthropy, particularly when it involves subjective judgments about values and trade-offs. Another approach mentioned is the consideration of different worldviews, including the potential risks and benefits of long-term future human welfare, animal welfare, and the well-being of humans today. The episode highlights the ongoing exploration and reflection needed to make informed decisions, with the ultimate goal of maximizing impact while considering the unique expertise and perspectives of program officers.
AI Risks: Concentrated Power and Misuse Risk
One of the main risks associated with AI development is the concentration of power. Similar to past technologies, AI has the potential to concentrate power in certain individuals or entities, leading to imbalances and potential misuse. The misuse risk refers to the possibility of advanced AI being used for purposes not beneficial to human flourishing. It is important to have robust research and measures in place to prevent such misuse and ensure AI development aligns with human well-being.
AI Risks: Accident Risks and Objective Functions
Accident risks in AI relate to the possibility of an AI system pursuing objectives that are not well-designed or conducive to human flourishing. If an AI is given a flawed or poorly defined objective function, it could lead to unintentional harmful outcomes due to its superior intelligence and decision-making abilities. Research in areas like reward learning and inverse reinforcement learning aims to address these issues by developing AI systems that optimize for objectives aligned with human values and avoiding unintended consequences.
Field Building to Address AI Risks
OpenPhil aims to tackle AI risks through field building, focusing on creating a robust community of experts dedicated to researching and addressing potential risks and challenges associated with AI development. By supporting technical research and policy analysis on AI safety and alignment, OpenPhil aims to build a pool of experts who can identify and prevent possible risks, ensuring a safer and more beneficial future with advanced AI.
The Need for Research Analysts at OpenPhilanthropy
OpenPhilanthropy is planning to hire research analysts to meet the growing demand for specialized roles within the organization. These analysts will focus on key areas such as AI strategy and biosecurity. As the organization matures, there is a need for intense training and mentorship to cultivate research analysts who can contribute greatly to cause prioritization and evaluating impact. OpenPhilanthropy aims to invest heavily in these new hires, with the potential for them to become future leaders within the organization.
Challenges in Describing Utopias
The concept of utopias is challenging to discuss due to the difficulty in describing a specific world without sounding totalitarian or restrictive. Even when multiple utopian descriptions were presented to a left-leaning population, those emphasizing freedom received the highest ratings. This suggests that people are wary of overly specific visions that limit personal choice and autonomy. Despite this challenge, there is still value in having conversations about what a desirable future world might look like, although it requires finding ways to avoid sounding controlling or top-down.
The Green Revolution averted mass famine during the 20th century. The contraceptive pill gave women unprecedented freedom in planning their own lives. Both are widely recognised as scientific breakthroughs that transformed the world. But few know that those breakthroughs only happened when they did because of a philanthropist willing to take a risky bet on a new idea.
Today’s guest, Holden Karnofsky, has been looking for philanthropy’s biggest success stories because he’s Executive Director of the Open Philanthropy Project, which gives away over $100 million per year - and he’s hungry for big wins.
In the 1940s, poverty reduction overseas was not a big priority for many. But the Rockefeller Foundation decided to fund agricultural scientists to breed much better crops for the developing world - thereby massively increasing their food production.
In the 1950s, society was a long way from demanding effective birth control. Activist Margaret Sanger had the idea for the pill, and endocrinologist Gregory Pincus the research team – but they couldn’t proceed without a $40,000 research check from biologist and women’s rights activist Katherine McCormick.
In both cases, it was philanthropists rather than governments that led the way.
The reason, according to Holden, is that while governments have enormous resources, they’re constrained by only being able to fund reasonably sure bets. Philanthropists can transform the world by filling the gaps government leaves - but to seize that opportunity they have to hire outstanding researchers, think long-term and be willing to fail most of the time.
Holden knows more about this type of giving than almost anyone. As founder of GiveWell and then the Open Philanthropy Project, he has been working feverishly since 2007 to find outstanding giving opportunities. This practical experience has made him one of the most influential figures in the development of the school of thought that has come to be known as effective altruism.
We’ve recorded this episode now because [the Open Philanthropy Project is hiring](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/get-involved/jobs) for a large number of positions, which we think would allow the right person to have a very large positive influence on the world. They’re looking for a large number of entry lever researchers to train up, 3 specialist researchers into potential risks from advanced artificial intelligence, as well as a Director of Operations, Operations Associate and General Counsel.
But the conversation goes well beyond specifics about these jobs. We also discuss:
* How did they pick the problems they focus on, and how will they change over time?
* What would Holden do differently if he were starting Open Phil again today?
* What can we learn from the history of philanthropy?
* What makes a good Program Officer.
* The importance of not letting hype get ahead of the science in an emerging field.
* The importance of honest feedback for philanthropists, and the difficulty getting it.
* How do they decide what’s above the bar to fund, and when it’s better to hold onto the money?
* How philanthropic funding can most influence politics.
* What Holden would say to a new billionaire who wanted to give away most of their wealth.
* Why Open Phil is building a research field around the safe development of artificial intelligence
* Why they invested in OpenAI.
* Academia’s faulty approach to answering practical questions.
* What potential utopias do people most want, according to opinion polls?
Keiran Harris helped produce today’s episode.
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