Who’s in charge? What von der Leyen’s absence reveals about the EU
Jan 17, 2025
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Nicholas Vinocur, POLITICO's editor-at-large with a sharp focus on European politics, and Koen Verhelst, a seasoned trade reporter, dive into the Europe’s political landscape amid Ursula von der Leyen's unexpected hospitalization. They explore the paralysis facing the EU as trade tensions rise and the far-right gains ground. Their discussion highlights the challenges of military spending disparities among nations and analyzes the geopolitical significance of Greenland, revealing how these dynamics could reshape EU relations with global powers.
Ursula von der Leyen's hospitalization revealed a troubling leadership vacuum in the EU, highlighting the commission's inadequate response protocols for incapacitated leaders.
The rise of Austria's far-right Freedom Party under Herbert Kickl poses significant challenges for European governance, threatening to undermine mainstream political coalitions against populism.
Deep dives
Ursula von der Leyen's Illness and EU Leadership
Ursula von der Leyen's hospitalization due to severe pneumonia created a leadership vacuum within the EU, raising concerns about the commission's effectiveness during her recovery. While officials claimed she remained in charge, the lack of transparency regarding her condition caused confusion among EU diplomats. The absence of clear guidance highlighted the ad hoc nature of succession within the European Commission, lacking a defined protocol for incapacitated leadership. This situation critically hampered the EU's response to emerging geopolitical challenges, particularly in the context of Donald Trump's provocative remarks regarding Greenland.
Trump's Greenland Remarks and EU Response
Donald Trump's musings about potentially using military force to acquire Greenland highlighted the strategic importance of the territory, especially concerning U.S. military interests and resource potential. While Greenland is not a formal part of the EU, its historical ties and current status as an overseas territory create a unique relationship that complicates the situation. The implications of Trump's comments stressed the EU's lack of a cohesive defense strategy, raising questions about how Europe would respond if such threats were to escalate. This provoked discussion among EU leaders about the adequacy of European defense capabilities and the potential need for renewed investment in security measures.
The Rise of Populism in Austria and Its Implications
The emergence of the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPO) potentially taking power under Herbert Kickl presents significant implications for European politics and governance. Kickl's leadership raises concerns about the effectiveness of mainstream coalitions to counter rising populism, jeopardizing the long-standing cordon sanitaire aimed at keeping extreme parties from influencing policy. A FPO-led government would not only shift Austria's stance within the EU but could invigorate far-right movements in neighboring countries like Germany and France. This growing trend of populism in Europe places pressure on traditional parties to adapt their strategies in light of changing voter sentiment and the political landscape.
While the president of the European Commission was secretly in the hospital, the next president of the United States was musing about invading Greenland. Ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration, EU Confidential host Sarah Wheaton was joined by POLITICO editor-at-large Nicholas Vinocur, defense reporter Laura Kayali and trade reporter Koen Verhelst to analyze why Europe seems to be paralyzed in the face of looming trade wars, Arctic gamesmanship and the rise of populists in countries around the bloc.