Podzept from Deutsche Bank Research Let's talk thEMes - 2026 Outlook: Get Involved
Dec 8, 2025
Tyanili (Dan) Mesia, a senior economist specializing in EMEA, joins Christian Vitoska, an EM rates analyst; Ollie (Oli) Harvey, an FX strategist; and Francisco Campos, Chief Latin America Economist. They explore why emerging markets (EM) still have room to grow, driven by policy dynamics and currency factors. Discussion includes low volatility in EMFX, attractive EM local bonds, and the diverse macro drivers in Asia and Africa. They also highlight the electoral risks in Latin America, emphasizing that choices will significantly affect future stability.
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EM Resilience And Room To Run
- Emerging Markets show resilience with growth north of 4% and strong asset performance in 2025.
- Prudence by EM policymakers and a softer dollar create room for further EM upside in 2026.
Low-Volatility Theme For EM FX
- EMFX volatility has been low since mid-year, driven mainly by equities and the dollar.
- A constructive risk backdrop, decent global growth and anchored Asian FX policy support continued low volatility.
Position For Calibrated Asian FX Moves
- Treat Asia's FX moves as likely calibrated and modest rather than large devaluations or rapid swings.
- Position for steady, low-volatility renminbi behaviour and policy that avoids sharp competitive moves.