Episode 2: The War for Ukraine with Major General Mick Ryan (Ret’d) AM
Sep 26, 2024
auto_awesome
Major General Mick Ryan, a Senior Fellow at the Lowy Institute and author on the Russia-Ukraine war, delves into vital military strategies and adaptations during the ongoing conflict. He argues the necessity of a clear theory of victory for Western support, emphasizing Ukraine's innovative tactics against Russia’s slower methods. Ryan highlights the crucial intersection of technology and human leadership in modern warfare, while also exploring the implications of the war on global security and the evolving nature of Western military strategies.
Ukraine's success in the war relies heavily on its adaptability and strong leadership, necessitating aligned support from NATO and the U.S.
Western self-deterrence and strategic timidity hinder effective military support for Ukraine, impacting the ability to achieve victory and establish lasting peace.
Deep dives
Ukraine's Potential for Victory
Ukraine has the capability to win the war, demonstrating both the will and effective strategies necessary for success. The country has adapted and improved throughout the conflict, learning from its experiences on the battlefield. However, for Ukraine to fully capitalize on its potential, it requires aligned support from its partners, especially NATO and the United States. Currently, assistance is primarily focused on helping Ukraine defend its territory rather than enabling it to decisively defeat Russia.
Self-Deterrence Among Western Allies
A significant issue facing Western support for Ukraine is the concept of self-deterrence, which manifests as strategic timidity in decision-making. The reluctance to provide substantial military aid stems from fears of escalating the conflict, despite the ongoing total war tactics employed by Russia. This hesitance overlooks the critical reality that the nature of Ukraine's struggle calls for robust support, such as advanced weaponry, to counter the aggression it faces. The lack of education surrounding war strategies in Western policymaking has contributed to this cautious approach.
Defining Victory Beyond the Battlefield
Victory for Ukraine encompasses more than just military success; it requires a comprehensive strategy for both winning the war and establishing peace afterward. This involves providing security assurances and ensuring that mechanisms are in place to prevent future aggression from Russia. Additionally, post-war reconstruction, justice for crimes committed during the conflict, and societal reintegration of affected populations are vital components of a sustainable peace. The absence of a clear political and military strategy from Western leaders has hindered the formulation of a viable end goal for Ukraine.
Adaptation in Warfare: An Ongoing Process
The war in Ukraine has manifested a battle of adaptations between the involved parties, including Ukraine, Russia, and Western allies. Ukraine has shown impressive grassroots adaptation, quickly responding to operational needs and leveraging civilian support, while Russia has struggled to adapt effectively at the tactical level due to its centralized command structure. Conversely, Western countries have been slow in their strategic adaptations despite ample resources, often lagging behind emergent needs and technological advancements seen in the war. This slow pace of adaptation could have significant implications for future conflicts, as the balance of capability shifts.
Today on Coffee & Conflict, Joshua Huminski is joined by Major General Mick Ryan (Ret’d) AM, Senior Fellow at the Lowy Institute, to discuss his new book, The War for Ukraine: Strategy and Adaptation Under Fire. Ryan argues that the Russia-Ukraine war highlights the crucial role of sound strategy and adaptability in determining military success. He emphasizes how both nations’ pre-war reforms and their ability to adjust tactics during the conflict, alongside strong leadership and institutional learning, are vital lessons for strategists and policymakers.
How can the U.S. and NATO evolve their support for Ukraine from defense to a strategy aimed at securing victory in the conflict? Is the West's current risk tolerance and strategic imagination sufficient to confront authoritarian regimes like Russia and China? Has the Russia-Ukraine war redefined Europe's strategic environment, and how should the West respond to this new geopolitical reality?
You can learn more about The War for Ukraine, and purchase a copy of the book, here: https://www.amazon.com/War-Ukraine-Strategy-Adaptation-Under/dp/1682479528
Check out today’s experts on Twitter:
@joshuachuminski from @CSPC_DC
@WarintheFuture from @LowyInstitute
Like what we're doing here?
Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.
And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!