Fantasy football strategist and analyst Ben Gretch joins JJ to discuss late-round drafting in fantasy football, combining film with data in analysis, embracing variance, Tony Pollard's market value, impact of video games on understanding NFL football, the importance of tacit knowledge in fantasy football analysis, analyzing running back efficiency and performance, and analyzing the dominance of number one receivers in the 2023 NFL season.
Context and specific circumstances should be considered for accurate player evaluation in fantasy football, instead of relying solely on general cohort analysis.
Leveraging team-level data effectively can provide valuable insights for roster construction and player evaluation in fantasy football.
Avoiding arbitrary cutoffs and setting meaningful thresholds based on specific analysis is crucial for precise interpretation of statistical data in fantasy football.
Embracing the uncertainty in fantasy football and approaching it as a game of probabilities leads to a more realistic and effective decision-making process.
Deep dives
Misapplying the aggregate in the specifics
One of the biggest mistakes fantasy managers make is misapplying the aggregate in the specifics. This can happen when people use arbitrary cutoffs and create comp groups that are not representative of the specific player in question. For example, using yards per route run to compare a player to a comp group that consists of elite receivers, when the player's value is right at the cutoff, is a misapplication of the aggregate. It's important to consider the context and specific circumstances of each player and not just rely on general cohort analysis. Understanding the nuances and individual situations is crucial for accurate player evaluation and decision-making in fantasy football.
Leveraging team-level data
Fantasy managers often fail to effectively utilize team-level data. It's essential to recognize that certain statistical trends or tendencies at the team level may only be significant for a few outlier teams and not across the entire league. For example, analyzing pass rate over expected can reveal interesting insights, like the Chiefs and Washington having high values, while the Falcons rank at the bottom. Understanding how specific teams deviate from the league average can provide valuable information for roster construction and player evaluation. By leveraging team-level data effectively, fantasy managers can gain a competitive edge in their decision-making process.
Avoiding arbitrary cutoffs
Another common mistake in fantasy football is the use of arbitrary cutoffs when interpreting statistical data. It's crucial to set meaningful thresholds that align with the specific research question or analysis, rather than relying on arbitrary values. For instance, setting a threshold at 50 or 25 for a particular stat without considering the broader context can lead to inaccurate conclusions. It's essential to establish logical and relevant thresholds based on the specific analysis and the player or team being evaluated. By avoiding arbitrary cutoffs, fantasy managers can ensure more precise and meaningful interpretation of statistical data.
Understanding the limits of prediction
Fantasy managers often struggle with accepting the limits of prediction. It's important to recognize that while analysis and research can provide insights, they cannot guarantee accurate forecasts. Football is a complex and ever-evolving game with numerous variables and unforeseen factors. No matter how well-informed and skilled an analyst or fantasy manager is, there will always be a level of uncertainty. Embracing this uncertainty and approaching fantasy football as a game of probabilities rather than absolutes can lead to a more realistic and effective decision-making process.
The concentration of top wide receivers as number one options is increasing
Based on research, the percentage of overall wide receiver and tight end scoring accounted for by each team's top scoring play has increased in 2023 compared to previous seasons. The top receivers in fantasy football drafts this year have generally been performing exceptionally well, while mid-round receivers have not seen the same success. This trend suggests that having elite number one wide receivers who dominate the targets and production is becoming more important and valuable. It is likely a combination of factors such as the shift towards more RPOs, favorable coverages, and offenses specifically targeting their number one options in single high coverage. Going forward, considering the dominance and concentration of top wide receivers could be a valuable strategy in fantasy football drafts.
The importance of elite speed for smaller running backs
In recent seasons, smaller running backs have shown increased viability in fantasy football. This is likely due to factors such as the lighter defensive personnel and more creative offensive schemes that emphasize getting the smaller backs on the edge and utilizing their speed. These smaller backs often rely on elite speed to compensate for their smaller size. While there is still a bias towards bigger running backs and concerns about durability, coaches may be more willing to utilize smaller backs in workhorse roles if they possess exceptional speed and playmaking ability. The success of smaller backs like De'Vaun Achan and Keaton Mitchell this season could spark a shift in the perception and utilization of smaller running backs in future seasons.
The dominance of number one wide receivers in 2023 fantasy football
The 2023 season has shown a higher concentration of top wide receivers as number one options in their respective offenses. This trend is evident in the significant increase in the percentage of team-wide receiving points accounted for by the top receiver compared to previous seasons. The dominance of top wide receivers like Jamar Chace, Tyreek Hill, and others has been a consistent theme in fantasy football this year. Factors such as RPOs, favorable coverages, and offensive countermeasures to defensive schemes have likely contributed to this increased reliance on number one options. Going forward, considering the dominance and target share of number one wide receivers could be a key strategy in fantasy football drafts and roster construction.
Ben Gretch joins JJ on this week's Perspectives episode to talk about strategic thinking in fantasy football, how to combine film with data in analysis, how to embrace variance, Tony Pollard's market value, and more.
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