Market Performance and Economic Indicators

Recent trends indicate that U.S. stocks have declined by about 5% year-to-date, while global stocks, excluding the U.S., have seen gains of nearly 9%. This divergence highlights the increasing performance gap, with non-U.S. stocks outperforming U.S. markets by a substantial 14 percentage points. Volatility indices and yield spreads on junk bonds indicate rising investor concerns, as the VIX index increased significantly, signaling heightened market anxiety. Analysts suggest that the probability of a U.S. recession is creeping up, with major investment banks adjusting their forecasts based on deteriorating economic indicators.