#146 Lasers, Planets, and Bayesian Inference, with Ethan Smith

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• Intro to Bayes Course (first 2 lessons free)
• Advanced Regression Course (first 2 lessons free)

Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work!

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Takeaways:

• Ethan's research involves using lasers to compress matter to extreme conditions to study astrophysical phenomena.
• Bayesian inference is a key tool in analyzing complex data from high energy density experiments.
• The future of high energy density physics lies in developing new diagnostic technologies and increasing experimental scale.
• High energy density physics can provide insights into planetary science and astrophysics.
• Emerging technologies in diagnostics are set to revolutionize the field.
• Ethan's dream project involves exploring picno nuclear fusion.

Chapters:

14:31 Understanding High Energy Density Physics and Plasma Spectroscopy

21:24 Challenges in Data Analysis and Experimentation

36:11 The Role of Bayesian Inference in High Energy Density Physics

47:17 Transitioning to Advanced Sampling Techniques

51:35 Best Practices in Model Development

55:30 Evaluating Model Performance

01:02:10 The Role of High Energy Density Physics

01:11:15 Innovations in Diagnostic Technologies

01:22:51 Future Directions in Experimental Physics

01:26:08 Advice for Aspiring Scientists

Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!

Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Giuliano Cruz, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Aubrey Clayton, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzolesi, Joshua Meehl, Javier Sabio, Kristian Higgins, Matt Rosinski, Luis Fonseca, Dante Gates, Matt Niccolls, Maksim Kuznecov, Michael Thomas, Luke Gorrie, Cory Kiser, Julio, Edvin Saveljev, Frederick Ayala, Jeffrey Powell, Gal Kampel, Adan Romero, Will Geary, Blake Walters, Jonathan Morgan, Francesco Madrisotti, Ivy Huang, Gary Clarke, Robert Flannery, Rasmus Hindström, Stefan, Corey Abshire, Mike Loncaric, David McCormick, Ronald Legere, Sergio Dolia, Michael Cao, Yiğit Aşık, Suyog Chandramouli and Guillaume Berthon.

Links from the show:

• Ethan on LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/ethan-smith-2903652b0 
• Ethan on Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=nawbtW0AAAAJ&hl=en
• LBS #47 Bayes in Physics & Astrophysics, with JJ Ruby: https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/47-bayes-physics-astrophysics-jj-ruby
• Principled Bayesian Workflow: https://arxiv.org/abs/2011.01808
• CMAP video from Vox: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqabT21d8VM
• Atlantic article about using giant lasers to study planets: https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2023/01/astrophysics-fusion-experimentation-supernovas/672625/ 
• Atomic physics in implosion plasmas: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34618-6 
• X-ray diffraction and new states of matter: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29813-4 
• What does this data actually look like?: https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0286001 
• JJ Ruby’s original Bayesian inference paper: https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.102.053210 
• Review article highlighting Bayesian inference in HED physics: https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0128661 
• Predictive modeling of implosions using surrogate models: https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0215962 
• Modeling equations of state as thermodynamically constrained GPs: https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0165298 
• Pycnonuclear fusion reactions: https://w3.pppl.gov/~fisch/fischpapers/Son_Chain_react.pdf

Transcript

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